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Scenario 1 background.pdf The Bears Gambit 1 ”Si vis pacem, para bellum…” Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus Operation Red Route 1 By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved DTG 171100ZSEP18 Pacifists and dreamers hoped that the fall of the iron curtain and most of the worlds remaining communist dictatorships, would usher in a new age of understanding, peace and international harmony and prosperity. This however has been proven by reality to be in fact very much not the case. Nationalism or patriotism is not dead, nor is it in any way considered a bad thing by many hundreds of millions of people. Likewise then the idea that we all live in what amounts to common solidarity and a united market, has had very serious problems with the broad masses. Reality is that many if not most modern industrialized nations stand deeply divided politically and emotionally. And that these and other divisions also run deep and firm between many nation states as well. War Never Changes, but neither does Politics. Russia have expressed rising anger and anxiety with regards to what is perceived by Russia, as aggressive and escalating European and NATO expansion into Russian spheres of influence. With rising force and clarity, Russian under the consolidated and firm leadership of President V. V. Putin, have tied this in with what the Russians consider deliberate insults and failure to aid Russia both economically and politically in the past and present. And also a clear lack of aid and understanding politically and militarily in the Russian part of the war against Terror, including Chechnya. And finally what Russia sees as an effort to keep them away from their natural and proper place as a great nation, and a Superpower. The idea that Nationalism is somehow a bad thing, falls wholly on a great many deaf ears – not least Russian. Russia has become more destabilized due to economic recession. The collapse in the Ruble in 2014 has caused an ongoing economic crisis worsened by amongst other things a fall in oil prices, international economic sanctions and worn out infrastructure. Infrastructure has historically always been a challenge in the vastness of Russia, and has not become easier. Moreover then Russia, although a great nation by any standard, still has the problem which has dogged its development for centuries, namely that it infrastructurally and economically always seems to be one step behind its competitors and potential enemies. Part of this is also the economic imbalance that Russia still exports too many raw resources and in turn imports too many fabricated goods, instead of making them in Russia. This combined with a sharp rise in nationalism and a more firm leadership, creates a volatile situation. One of the stated goals of Russian foreign policy is to see Russia take their rightful place as a superpower on the international scene again, and to actively counter perceived threats not only to Russia, but to Russian interests in general. Russian foreign policy revolves around the idea of the near abroad and the far abroad, and the near abroad, what was once called buffer states, have been slowly eroded by internal unrest and the expansion of NATO. In line with this, then Russian leadership have increasingly and with support from large parts of their populace, expressed the view, that NATO might have won the Cold War, but that they sacrificed any legitimacy by treating Russia as a third world nation, ruled by a fool (the first President of the Russian Federation). Also the West including EU and NATO is seen to be hemming Russia militarily in, by expanding NATO literally to the doorstep of Russia, despite repeated firm Russian warnings, and in general refuse to understand the Russian position. This includes non-military actions that have worsened the economic situation in Russia. Many if not most Russians are fed up being told what to think and feel by the West, and being demonized by using the same tactics on Islamic terrorists on Russian soil as the West including USA are seen using abroad. The Russian plan for survival as a state has for centuries been to bleed any invader dry, and then drawing on its resources, annihilate them. This is based in part on the idea of buffer states, geographical areas that gives Russia the means and space to do a fighting withdrawal towards their centre of power around Moskva. And if the need arises, then have the option to fall back behind the Urals from where they would stage massive counterattacks. Russia has over the last 30 years seen many if not most of their buffer areas disappear, and what is worse that these despite Russian warnings have allied with real or perceived enemies. In line with this they have sought to counteract what they perceive as a veiled but direct attack on Russian sovereignty, first in Georgia then in Ukraine/Crimea and Syria. And now in the three Baltic states. Russia has thus sought a firmer and more belligerent line politically, both domestically and internationally. This includes covert support to parties and groups in line with Russia national interests, including pacifist groups, newspapers and parties in Europe. Russia has also given covert opposition to those who is perceived to be opposing Russia internationally and internally. And overtly they have politically underlined this with de facto alliances with Syria and thus Iran, as well as China. Russian military forces in the Kaliningrad Area alone are unofficially estimated to be in excess of 250.000 military personnel, with in excess of 250.000 in the areas surrounding the Baltic States on top of that. Actual battle-ready Russian military force in the region is estimated to be at least in excess of 160.000 in varying degrees of training and readiness. This is not counting the VDV or Russian Airborne Troops, Naval Infantry and Russian Special Operation Forces, which adds at least another 15.000 in this theatre alone. On top of this, then ever closer ties between Russia and Byelorussia de facto means that Byelorussian military personnel can and will be added to this number if needed. This means in excess of at least another 25.000 military personnel, just in the ground forces alone, that train with Russia, including in the Zapad yearly military exercises. Western military experts made the claim after 1992, that it would take Russia at least 10 years of rearmament to pose a threat to Western Europe. From its lowest point in 1998, then the military budget in Russia has risen, passing the budget level of 1992 in 2008, with inflation-adjusted funds. In 2008 Russia made sweeping military reforms, and have since spent vast sums to upgrade their forces. Thus the ten years for Russia are now spent … What western politicians and civil servants for years have chosen to ignore, in their eagerness to use up all of the so-called “Peace Dividend”, is that the same applies to the West. Many European countries, in an effort to cut military costs, have changed and reduced their armies into ever smaller COIN and Anti-insurgents units and structures, with a very limited capability to fight an actual conventional war. Capabilities such as Submarines, Anti-air defences, Logistics and Artillery takes at least 10 years to build up again when they have been scrapped, as they require not only the hardware, but also specialists, experts and training to function, as well as doctrine to integrate them into the battle. But it looks like the West and NATO might not have 10 years: Ethnic Russian people in the Baltic States have long claimed unfavourable and racist treatment in the three Baltic States, and the tensions have lately become violent. Many people in the Baltic States feel that they owe the Ethnic Russians absolutely nothing, as the Ethnic Russians are perceived by these people as being unwelcome remnants and infiltrators of an oppressive state who twice conquered and then militarily occupied the once free and democratic Baltic States for decades after WW2. The Baltic States have sought for affirmation of defence obligations from both EU and NATO. Europe internally and USA stand divided on the issue, and specifically the scope and means of affirming the military solidarity. Thus the Baltic States feel isolated and vulnerable, a fact not lost on Russia. A little over a month ago the situation escalated, as insurgents and terrorists have started fighting for what they claim is “A Free and Equal Lithuania”, while at the same time Lithuanian Internet infrastructure was attacked with different but coordinated attacks. This includes electronic attacks on key logistical and electrical nodes. Also more peripheral sites that have a military connection have been targeted by Chinese and Russian based hackers and infiltrators, including www.Steelbeasts.com and www.kanium.eu. The Russian SVR is suspected of being behind some if not most of these attacks, while the Russian GRU is suspected of training, funding and supporting the insurgents as well as deploying GRU Spetznas to support, augment and help the insurgents. The other two Baltic nations are also experiencing unrest, disturbances and acts of criminality; similar to what is happening in Lithuania, but on a much lower scale. It seems that the actions in Lithuania are coordinated, supported and for lack of better words, has a game plan. Initially then parts of the Nordic Battlegroup and UK Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) was put on alert and deployed to Lithuania. Terrorist acts are still being committed in Lithuania, with unclear perpetrators. But all signs still point to Russian support and involvement, directly and indirectly. The NATO and EU have discreetly and slowly been raising their military alert levels and readiness, but are hemmed in by a wish of not wanting to escalate the situation, as well as disagreements on a unified contingency plan as well as direction. Thus so far it has mostly been a matter of holding more military exercises, making political statements and seeking political solutions both overtly as well as covertly. The discreet talks with Russia have so far yielded little if any results. Consequently then the European nations in general, and the Baltic and Eastern European States in particular, as well as NATO are re-evaluating and assessing their military options and reserves. Unfortunately many of them are finding that discreet orders of ammunition and ordnance are hard pressed to be met – at least in full, as most national arms producers firstly cannot ramp up production significantly in the short run, and secondly that the producers are being pressured to supply the nations in which the few remaining manufacturing facilities are situated first. But the wheels are slowly beginning to turn faster. The Baltic States, Finland and the Eastern European nations are recalling and reactivating reservists. Lithuania in the meantime, struggling to survive as a State has used any and all means at their disposal to stop the insurgency and terrorism. Russia claiming that Lithuania have lost all legitimacy and control, and seeking to safeguard Ethnic Russian people, has late last week massed troops at the borders to Lithuania from Byelorussia, direction Vilnius. Lithuania is now in an undeclared and limited scale conflict with insurgents and what is by Lithuania claimed as Russian Special Operation Forces, Spetznas. NATO is at highest peacetime readiness, with weekly meetings between the defence ministers. The EU military structure has added little except more confusion and discord to the situation, and stands even less prepared – De facto being what amounts to a paper tiger, who primary function seems to be to stand in the way of NATO. TF-32, part of the JEF have been tasked with providing, escort and security for a Military Convoy moving from Marijampolé south to Šalčininkai, close to the Russian border. The convoy contains supplies and ammunition for Lithuanian Defence personnel and police that have fought for days trying to keep the area clear of insurgents. This is a distance of around 25 Km. SITUATION The military situation in the AO remains tense, with Insurgents making increasingly bold and well-planned attacks on both military and civilian targets. The majority of the insurgents seem to have at least some military training and are well-equipped with light weapons, and has proven to be well-coordinated. Recently there has been an influx of Russian made ATGMs and MANPADs, as well as what seems to be very well trained insurgents. There is widespread belief that many of these are in fact Russian SOF soldiers, and probably GRU Spetznas – what was called “Little Green Men” in Ukraine and Crimea. Also IED´s have been found and disarmed, but sadly some were only discovered when they detonated. So far no NATO (apart from the Baltic States), JEF or Nordic Battlegroup soldiers have been lost or injured. A fact that Command fears can change soon. A convoy is to depart from Marijampolé for Šalčininkai, with military supplies soon. The convoy is mission-critical to the forces holding and stabilizing the area around Šalčininkai and north towards Vilnius, which remains one of the few areas in southern Lithuania, not controlled or infested by insurgents. As neither NATO, the Baltic States nor the Scandinavian countries are at war at this time, then as little force as possible is to be used in executing the mission. The goal is to deliver the convoy safely from FOB ATHENA to Government Stores in Šalčininkai, via E85 in order to ensure re-supply of Lithuanian security forces in Šalčininkai. Civilians in Area of Operations are mostly staying indoors, or try to flee the city North. OWN forces are to displace showing all needed and prudent safety measures. Rules of Engagement NOTHING IN THESE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO TAKE APPROPIATE ACTION TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT. A. You have the right to use force to defend yourself against attacks or clear threats of attack. B. Hostile fire may be returned effectively and promptly to stop a hostile act. C. If OWN forces or those under their protection are attacked, then minimum force should be used under the circumstances and proportional to the threat. D. We are NOT at war AND in an allied nation, uncalled for destruction of civilian property will NOT be accepted.
In the hopes that everyone have had a good New Year, and looking forward to 2018, then this is the prologue to the Campaign "The Bears Gambit". My recommendation is that you read it in the attached PDF format document. This Campaign will start at sunday 21´st of January 2018, and run through February to March. As usually, then it is open to all. More information to follow - and to be continued... The Bears Gambit "My dear brothers, never forget, when you hear the progress of enlightenment vaunted, that the devil's best trick is to persuade you that he doesn't exist!" Charles Pierre Baudelaire Prologue By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved Leningrad 1975 The young man left the grounds of Leningrad State University, smiling he looked up at the imposing structure. As his eyes fell on the Soviet flag gently swaying in the wind and his smile faded. He was a Russian, and a proud one, but Communism to him was a blind alley, far away from civilization. Not that he would ever say that out loud, being intelligent not just in the books as his freshly acquired Law degree proved, but also in the ways of the party and the ways power worked. His Professor Anatoly Aleksandrovich Sobchak and he had had many quiet and discreet talks: what would be the future of his beloved country. And would the future be under and through the Communist party? He mentally shrugged his shoulders; it was a theoretical discussion, and a forbidden one at that. He was a member of the Communist party because he needed to be, and because it was a way to power – in a way the only one. And to serve his nation as he wanted he could not allow himself to be compromised… And besides … working for Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti, was probably not a place to show anything but undying devotion to the Party, he thought to himself as he laughed. He had just been accepted to training the day before. Looking one last time thoughtfully at the flag he turned and continued. Germany 1989 He looked out the window, disgust and irritation curling up his lip. Stupidity, weakness and incompetence… THOSE were the keywords of the new Soviet president: Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev might talk about his new ideas of Perestroika and Glasnost. But to him they were Nekulturnyi, irrational and worst of all weak. Even Chernenko was less of a disaster he mused to himself, as he sadly shook his head. The Soviet leadership had managed to weaken his beloved Rodina … and he knew it would be worse before it became better again. Seeing the East German youths waving banners and chanting slogans, something which only months before would have sent them to prison or worse, he shook his head again and turned back to the files that he was burning to keep them out of reach of the mob. While working he wowed that he would make his Motherland Great Again … Somehow and someday. Saint Petersburg 1991 He smiled at the men sitting at the table. His old professor had done well for himself: Being a mayor of Saint Petersburg, a name he actually preferred to the old one. And the Professor had helped him with his newfound power. His smiled faded as he took a look out the window at the street littered with old veterans covered with medals and begging to get food … or more likely more money for the next bottle of vodka. His country needed a new future… HE needed a new future. He had done his best, brokering deals for food, which his countrymen desperately needed - and for this he had been investigated. There would be a time for reckoning later, both for the traitors and for the countries that had raped his country and even now was laughing at it. A cold calm fury settled into him: he could not allow himself to lose focus. There was too much to do, and only barely enough time. He didn’t know many of them by name; he knew Medvedev was another of his old professor’s students and protégées, but the others he didn’t really know. This was part of the overall idea, which he had thought up with his old professor. What they were doing would help shape the future of their country and help save its future and people. The men were powerful, clever and intelligent – and they also in each of their own fields were powerbrokers. Together they possessed a vast amount of power, and if their plans worked then would become even more powerful in time. His old professor raised his hand, and the room fell silent. “They say that to make an omelet, then you need to break some eggs. Maybe that it’s true. Or maybe that is just another oversimplification like the ones that the foreign nations use when they talk of our nation. They think we are beaten, they think they have won and they think they can take away our power, our resources and remove all the buffer states, that our forefathers through hundreds of years died for, in order to safeguard our Rodina against the foreign powers that have tried again and again to invade us from all sides of the compass except North. And do it while making fools of us, humiliating our Great Motherland. Well – my friends and fellow patriots. We are not beaten. We may be on our knees, but the advantage from being on your knees is that you see things other people do not. And that our enemies and adversaries will underestimate us. So what we will use is patience, our willpower and the freedom of action that the fact that they underestimate us gives. The old system fell because it was a weak and corrupt system, built on irrational and delusional ideas. But Russia existed before communism, and it will survive it too. Metal tempered in fire and cold becomes stronger. What we will plan today is the future of our Country. Our plan will take years if not decades and demand the utmost sacrifices. Maybe even our lives. We who are here are ready to make that sacrifice. We don’t plan for the short scope and short term. We will get a better and stable future for our grandchildren. The west, despite all their power, is weak: they are bound to goals on the short term, because they have to bribe their voters every 3 to 5 years. Because of this their politicians wants to take the easy solutions. But we will not make the same mistake that they did and underestimate them. Their democracy makes them both strong but at the same time weak. In this they are much the same as the Communists who managed to squander our countries valuables away on stupidity and irrationality and helped by useful Idiots and traitors in the west. However, as I said, then they are not to be underestimated. Democracies are capable of astounding feats of production, military engineering and endless cruelty if awoken, like the Germans and Japanese in general, and the people of Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki in particular, learned the hard way. Like a bear it is better to let them sleep, and slip unseen and quietly by them until we are ready to face them on our terms, when we are strong and they are weak. We will forge a new road, we will make a new future and we will do it by taking the best from both systems. And we will make a system that in 25 years will be stronger than either. From weakness we will build greatness. And we will have to accept the humiliation that the west subjects us to now, in the knowledge that our country needs to be hardened – like a sword is hardened in fire and cold. But like a sword our cause needs to be tempered the right way: show flexibility, so we have the adaptability our enemies and our predecessors lacked. And not break in the process, but rather seize the opportunities and the future” The men in the room slowly all nodded and looked at each other, feeling the weight of responsibility and history. The conference lasted well into the morning of the next day, and continued for another four days. When the conference finished, the men quietly left, and walked with confident steps past the ruins of the Soviet Union which could be seen everywhere, leaving the detritus of a failed state and ideology in their wake without a second glance. Moscow 2015 “The fools … 20 years of warnings and talk and showing them our military might. The west love talking about not crossing lines, and yet they seem intent on crossing them all themselves. And still they keep trying to run our country and continue with their cold war and pushing their bases closer to us, while disregarding warnings and signs that a five year old child would have registered. Well … at least they are predictable. And weak – fortunately their words and talks no longer can stop us” The man slowly shook his head and turned from the window, looking at the men sitting at the table. “We have secured our south and east. We can never ever trust the Nekulturnyi Iranians or Chinese, but at least we can trust their greed, hunger for power and the need for self-preservation of their tiny elitist ruling cadres as well as their need for technology, weapons and resources. In this they are as predictable as the West. It is regrettable and unforeseen that we have lost the Indians in the process, but there is nothing to do about that. Now then: Are we ready for the next phase…?” He lifted his glass of tea in its silver holder and took a sip while his blue eyes piercing them as he gazed across them. One by one the men nodded, the last man taking the word for them all: “Yes my President. Our long-term Maskirovka is running as planned. The west is weak, militarily especially so and almost disarmed, or rather weekly armed for battle against terrorists and bandits. They have slowly started rearming but for most of the Europeans they only make symbolic gestures. We estimate that they will not be able to disrupt us militarily and therefore not have the political willingness or courage to try when we move to the next phase. Many of the core military competences that many of their nations once held have been abolished. We estimate that it would take these nations 10 years from the time that they might try to get them back, before they could even come close to their former strength. That is to say if they try to get them back. We don’t even have to finance and support what Lenin termed the useful idiots, who helped with our goals during the cold war, as there seems to be plenty who are willing to weaken their countries without our guidance or help. Our plans expected the West to disarm to some degree while we gathered our strength. But we never expected the west to disarm to the point that they did – even the Swedes who once could field one of the strongest defenses, have basically dismantled it, by repeatedly cutting in half their forces over a number of times. Reality it seems has exceeded our hopes. Also their nations stand divided and UN paralyzed. Anything that they might try to push through UN can be blocked by either us or the Chinese. And the Chinese like us haven’t forgotten the western abuse of UN in Libya. UN, like the League of Nations was, is a toothless, powerless and weak old man, run by corrupt fools. And it is one that will be put out to pasture when the time is right. We will secure the next buffers in three to four years as planned, barring any unforeseen events. And then we are secure from the west” Good, The President thought, and turned to the window again with a sigh. “Make sure that there are no mistakes. And any unforeseen events we will handle as they might appear” He allowed himself a small smile, as he contemplated the possible futures, and the events that unfolded in Ukraine and other places. Not everything went as planned, but enough went well that the plans would not be disturbed significantly. And the process of political solidification, rearmament and strategic alliances were on track. In fact he along with the other in the leading cadre had been and still was, amazed of how well things went – they just needed to be patient for another 3 to 4 years more. And then they would break the seventh seal. The Bears Gambit.pdf