BACKGROUND KANIUM SUNDAY 18th OF FEB 1900 UTC "BG3 - Operation Solemn Shield" by Nike-Ajax and SnS

[Nike-Ajax]

Scenario 3 Background.pdf

 

The Bears Gambit 3

 

 

“Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.”

Friedrich Nietzsche

 

 

Operation Solemn Shield

 

 

By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved

 

 

DTG 170400ZOCT18 

 

4 days ago, Russian forces were seen begin massing in Kaliningrad, in the vicinity of Nesterov, along Route E28. Intent seemed possibly to be to cut of Vilnius from E and NE, including Kaunas. EU and NATO have activated and deployed some forces, but have yet to declare war or invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

All NATO countries are working around the clock to adjust to the new situation, but it seems the Russians have achieved total Strategic if not tactical surprise – a brilliant example of use of Maskirovka on a Hybrid Battlefield.

For years the west including NATO and EU have sought to dominate the world through, what can poorly and shallowly, and for lack of better words be described as a new world order. They have sought to politically and economically influence and push countries like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea in a democratic and non-belligerent direction. This is an effort that has met with very little if any success. However as they have concurrently chosen to downgrade their military capabilities, this has in fact over the years become the only option.

There is also the fundamental problem, in which the industrialized nations, with Europe in the lead, consistently choose not to accept and understand the driving forces behind the Russian and other similar nation’s actions. And that they chose not to heed the warnings given.

This is even more so as many western corporations have made significant investments in many of the not only non-democratic, but in effect anti-democratic, nations. This means that any action against these would mean billions in loss and disruption in supplies and goods. As the western nations hands are thus in effect tied to non-belligerent actions, and UN is paralyzed in part because of the very real possibility of the permanent members of the Security Council using their right to Veto any suggestion, then UN much like the League of Nations stands powerless to stop anything.

The situation is therefore much akin to where the world was in the late thirties, yet everybody in power in the western world strongly denies this reality. This is, among other reasons, because they have no actual way or rather lacks the vision to change or address it. Sharp tongues, to which no one in power has listened, could make the claim that the leadership of the industrialized nations, for decades have Rejected Reality and substituted it for their own. No matter what, then the reality of the matter now is that the manoeuvring room for political, economic and philosophical debate is getting ever smaller. And not just through the events in the Baltic Region, as across the whole world frictions and old rivalries are heating up.

2 days ago OWN Recon forces passed east through OWN FLOT after being heavily engaged by Russian forces at the border to the WEST. Russian forces initially engaged and pursued them, but seemed to be taken by surprise by the events and out of order and sync, and has stopped the advance and fallen back to the area on, and around the border, as they seem to restructuring and rearming from the premature push. They are presumably also receiving new orders. In the meantime, then TF-32 has replaced TF-48 guarding towards the border.

Frantic communications with HQ has yielded little support or intelligence. Also HQ today asked for more and closer Recon of the border to which the CO of the TF-32 patiently explained that such an undertaking would only bring them into further contact with the ENY. And that such a contact would be done under tactically unfavourable conditions. A higher up Officer in HQ, Colonel Karl Sexton then ordered the CO to take all his Recon assets back to the border, to which the CO calmly replied that he could put that order in a dark and narrow space where orders are rarely filed. Nothing heard since then.

Russia is furious and claims that NATO and Baltic forces again opened fire first, this time directly on Russian Military forces, and that they did this while being on Russian soil. Russia demands the handover for prosecution of what they call “Criminals and terrorists” and a “Fast and decisive examination of the War crimes”.

The situation remains grim. As there is little standing between Russian Forces, and the areas of KAUNAS to the NE, other than TF-32 and its neighbouring forces to N and S, it’s imperative that OWN forces hold on for as long as possible to enable other forces to deploy.

Politically then Europe remains polarized, with small but increasingly violent anti-war movements rallying under the motto of “what is the use/what is it good for”,  and is in part supported, or at least condoned by,  pacifist movements and parties, including Miljöpartiet de Gröna in Sweden, Radikale Venstre in Denmark and Die Linke in Germany amongst others. In the last hours an ANTIFA led demonstration held in Hamburg Germany went from bad to worse: one policeman lies dead and several others are wounded, while at the same time many demonstrators have also been injured, some severely. But even though the European nations are divided, then a rising majority of European voters seeks at least to some extent, to reaffirm defence obligations within NATO and Europe. The picture is less clear with their elected politicians. Turkey and France still distance themselves further from any military engagement with Russia though. The southern European States, with an exception of Greece seems to be dragging their feet deliberately as well. In Greece, then fears of another confrontation with Turkey, seems to be spurring on a more activist political line.

In the last hours the Cyberattacks against both infrastructure and other select targets in both Europe and USA have been increasing. The preliminary assessment is that it seems to be a mix of attacks from Russian sources as well as other domestic terrorists and anarchists who have used the opportunity of weakness in Europe. The attacks also have targeted news agencies and pro-war groupings and persons.

A warning has been sent to all NATO and JEF nations as well as others who have assets in theatre. Consequently many - but not all - of the NATO and JEF countries have gone to full military alert, mobilizing whatever forces they can. This seems to be the last straw for some - but not all - of the NATO and European nations who were holding back, with northern and eastern European nations clearly more active.

But regardless of this, then NATO is still logged in discussions and has yet to make an official stand. And as such have not formally invoked Article 5 yet.

 

SITUATION

OWN forces have been engaged with what seems to be ENY Recon forces or ENY Recon Screen vicinity KYBARTAI to the WEST. The enemy casualties are unknown, but seem substantial. OWN Recon forces have passed FLOT and have assumed a defensive posture N and S of TF-32, which has been rushed forward to provide more strength.

From passive and active sensors placed along the borders it seems that the Russians are now getting ready to resume their advance and the attack that seemed to have been temporarily halted by the engagement of its forward troops. Thus it is to be expected that they will resume their advance EAST towards FLOT and our position very soon.

We can expect no reinforcements even though it seems that at least the Baltic States, Poland and the Eastern European members of NATO are assuming a full military readiness.  
OWN forces have prepared to the degree it’s possible with minefields, obstructions and dug-in fire positions. In case of overwhelming ENY forces, OWN forces are expected to hold out for a long as possible and to conduct an orderly retreat towards NE. Further battle positions are being prepared as fall-back positions.

 

Range from border to Own positions 14 km.

 

 

 

Rules of Engagement

NOTHING IN THESE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO TAKE APPROPIATE ACTION TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT.

A. You have the right to use force if you feel that you or other NATO & Lithuanian Forces or civilians are under threat to life. 

B. The force used under the circumstances should be proportional to the threat.

C. Uncalled for destruction of civilian property will not be accepted.

D. NO FIRES east of FLOT is allowed.

Edited February 11, 2018 by Nike-Ajax