Recent events in Pakistan

[TankHunter]

Well, considering that no one has done a thread about the subject yet, I will.

There are two possible groups (that I see at least) that engaged in the assassination of Bhutto.

The first one is a vanguard type force (think Zarqawi’s Al Quada in Iraq in the first year after the invasion of Iraq). If it was a vanguard type group, then the intent wouldn’t be to get rid of a western style leader (though it would be a plus) but to show that the state is impotent. This would cause other attacks by those who are also unhappy with the Pakistani government and increase the speed that primary loyalties are formed (for it seems the state fails at providing security), thus weakening the state even further. A possible secondary goal would be to weaken the social fabric of the state by creating a rift between those supporting the government and those who supported Bhutto. Though if this works too well (I.E. a full fledged civil war) it is liable to backfire on the attackers for a full scale civil war would be nearly a total war, something that the attackers would not be able to fight, though a low level burn would be something that an insurgency of that type can effectively fight in (read up on the Askariya Mosque bombings and their results as a modern example). With both, the objective isn’t to destroy the state, but to weaken it greatly.

A second possible group would be those who are opposed to her political beliefs or are against her pro western attitudes. The intent would likely be to prevent the westernization of Pakistan. If this is the case, I would assume that it would likely not be done by Musharraf. This is mainly because of exactly what is happening now, instability and people thinking that he may have been behind the attack. He already has enough people looking to kill/overthrow him, I doubt that he needs any more. I know very little of the Pakistani government and security services, but from what I have heard, I would not be shocked if it was done by a group inside the government or military, but acting independently of Musharraf. The main goal of this would be to keep the Pakistani government strong, but avoid certain influences on the government.

So, what do you all think?

[Mogwa]

I can only add that, at this early stage, it would appear that because of the large security presence, and a warning in advance that there would be an attack, that there was probably some cooperation by either an individual or group within the security force, or cooperation of the security service itself with the attacker(s).

http://www.nationalpost.com/most_popular/story.html?id=201040

"That an armed bomber could have penetrated such security has raised suspicions that her murderer was aided by someone within the country's powerful internal security services."

Mog

[MajorMagee]

As a derivative of "follow the money", the only ones who really benefit from this are the Islamic Fundamentalists.

[Norfolk]

We will see over the next few months what may come of this. I am not convinced that the situation will spin out of control; but neither do I believe that this was in any way a good thing. In a strange way, the extremists, if this was their work, may simply reinforce the status quo, and this may have been an objective of theirs. The status quo has served Al-Qaida and the Taleban well; they have remained practicaly undisturbed, for the most part (a single major, and indecisive Army campaign 2 years ago to root them out being the main exception to this), and have thrived and propspered within Pakistan. They still have sympathizers and confederates within the Pakistani Military and the ISI, amongst other places. Indeed, the very trainers inside Al-Qaida's and some of the Taleban's training camps are former Pakistani Army officers.

In sum, I would have to agree very much with Tankhunter's second proposition.

[rump]

Now we can look forward to another failed state, this time armed with nukes.

-Rump

[TankHunter]

We will see over the next few months what may come of this. I am not convinced that the situation will spin out of control; but neither do I believe that this was in any way a good thing. In a strange way, the extremists, if this was their work, may simply reinforce the status quo, and this may have been an objective of theirs. The status quo has served Al-Qaida and the Taleban well; they have remained practicaly undisturbed, for the most part (a single major, and indecisive Army campaign 2 years ago to root them out being the main exception to this), and have thrived and propspered within Pakistan. They still have sympathizers and confederates within the Pakistani Military and the ISI, amongst other places. Indeed, the very trainers inside Al-Qaida's and some of the Taleban's training camps are former Pakistani Army officers.

In sum, I would have to agree very much with Tankhunter's second proposition.

Well, ever since the Lal Masjid siege things have been getting interesting in Pakistan. This could be a continuation of the results of that (the Pakistanis have been having some problems in the frontier provinces after the siege).

Anyway, if this was the work of a group connected to Al Quada (which seems to be the case), then I would not be shocked if the intent was to create major instability in Pakistan and that is exactly what is happening now. I guess we will find out for sure soon enough...

Oh, and interesting review on the infrastructural damage that has been caused by all this.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2007/12/journal-system.html

[Norfolk]

Well, ever since the Lal Masjid siege things have been getting interesting in Pakistan. This could be a continuation of the results of that (the Pakistanis have been having some problems in the frontier provinces after the siege).

Anyway, if this was the work of a group connected to Al Quada (which seems to be the case), then I would not be shocked if the intent was to create major instability in Pakistan and that is exactly what is happening now. I guess we will find out for sure soon enough...

Oh, and interesting review on the infrastructural damage that has been caused by all this.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2007/12/journal-system.html

That sort of damage is particularly disturbing, TankHunter. It would appear that the two main rail lines (I may be in error here) between Karachi and Lahore are out of service, then; both are cut in central and northern Sind Province. And billions of rupees in damage, with 20 days to a month required for repairs?...hmmm.:shocked:

[TankHunter]

More bad news

"Internet and telephone services were suspended in Lahore after an attack on the optical fibre cable near Nawabshah, the Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL) officials told Daily Times on Friday..."

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C12%5C29%5Cstory_29-12-2007_pg7_28

[sabot_ready]

Video footage of the gunman and the accompanying suicide bomber.

http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Video_The_most_conclusive_evidence_Bhutto_1230.html