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ME Geopolitics Fuel New SB Scenario Construction


Ratseal

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Much of the news coverage of the events in Egypt features still or video imagery of M1 tanks in Cairo. Are any of our esteemed scenario builders considering new work, perhaps inspired by this new development?

How about Egypt versus Saudi? Or Egypt versus China somewhere in Africa?

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The difficulty in simulating a Merk IV with any of the existing tanks adds to the likelihood that 'buildable' sce would be Egypt versus Saudi, or China, or Libya etc.

Given the closed model architecture of the sim, and the paucity of attributable tech info about Israeli tanks, simulating the Egypt/Israeli battles is a bridge too far.

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The Muslim Brotherhood has told the Egyptian people to prepare for war and announced if they come to power they will back out of the Egypt-Israel peace deal. Better start looking for a Merkava substitute if you want to model a real world possible scenario.

Imagine Harder !!!

Mog

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  • 2 weeks later...

It seems unlikely for there to be war due to a number of factors that I won't get into. However for a "what if" scenario a possible situation before the war would be Israel acquiring Abrams. In the Yom Kippur war the IDF had received stocks of M60 tanks from the US during and supposedly immediately before the conflict. It may not be too out of the realm of possibility for them to obtain Abrams so as to have crew who are knowledgeable in using the tank in the event that Israel may require stocks of more tanks while at war.

The issue that I have been having with such a mission involves what to do with simulating the Israeli heavy APCs...

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If I was Israel I would have no choice but to take these muslim brotherhood extremist whack jobs at there word. When they say they will back out of the Arab Israeli peace deal and to prepare for total war with Israel, Israel has no choice to but to believe them. If they come to power there could be trouble.

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Well if it is a total war then it wouldn't it be a bit of an already decided conclusion? Especially considering Israel's capabilities in the field of nuclear weapons.

Israel would have to be in real danger of losing a conventional war before they started to throw around the crowd pleasers willy nilly. Thinking they would instantly start nuking places just because a war has started is ignorant.

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Israel would have to be in real danger of losing a conventional war before they started to throw around the crowd pleasers willy nilly. Thinking they would instantly start nuking places just because a war has started is ignorant.

With your use of the phrase "total war" in a previous post it would seem to indicate to most people a war in which there is a total mobilization of the state in the conflict. The implication of course being that the stakes are high, such as the survival of a state or regime. In the Yom Kippur war I recall that the Israeli leadership seriously considered the nuclear option. A situation in which Israel proper being threatened was a distinct possibility. In your nightmare scenario of a total war, Israel proper would definitely be threatened. In which case Israel would definitely consider the employment of nuclear weapons at the very least.

Another aspect involves the fact that those total wars that have been engaged in in at least the past century and a half tend to involve long periods of time, in which case the side with the numbers tends to win simply due to attrition. Israel simply cannot conduct a long war against an enemy that has a 10-1 (probably more) advantage in manpower. As such Israel would be forced to engage in the use of nuclear weapons in such a case.

Add in that Syria may well take advantage of the situation to regain the Golan Heights. Due to this the very real possibility of the use of nuclear weapons increases to what could be called a likelihood.

If you want to avoid such assumptions and interpretations, then I would advise that you may want to chose your wording differently.

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Preface: since Geopolitics is the premise of not only scenario design, but also of the OP's inquiry, I wax political analytics in order to establish premise for my response. Please oh great censor, grant me context.

I tried to find reputable sources on the subject of the Muslim Brotherhood's "prepare for war" edict and certainly found that from the fountain of truth. However, I also wanted to triangulate against this source, but couldn't find much beyond an article in a Moonie rag and various other semi-authoritative outlets who ascribe the statement about breaking the treaty to a fellow by the name of Rashad al-Bayoum. Mr. al-Bayoum, just a few years junior to Mubarak, is said to have called for the dissolution of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty on "Japan's NHTV." I then found that this same phrase is parrot relayed amongst several other copy/paste news outlets.

So, before I fired up my synapses to conjure up casus belli, or a bon mot, for an Arab on Jew battlefield tryst, I wanted to gauge the odds a bit better...

Of course I see a grand outline from the Oracle on the whole sordid conspiracy, which ends in Armageddon war, but, again, I was hoping to triangulate sources. After a reasonable search, I can't find an NHTV in Japan. Now of course I know there is an NHK in Japan, but I only find articles which continuously parrot-relay the NHTV bit. Once I arrived at NHK, they allude to a discussion with Rashad al-Bayoumi which is somewhat more sedate, but does allude to the earlier statement calling for the annulment of the peace vows. Upon further examination, many reputable and authoritative sources suggest that the Egyptian Army, the only real arbiter of law in Egypt at the moment, seems to advocate for sustaining existing agreements.

So, I'm not sure if I should design for total war, as the hunter of tanks has also indicated.

However, on the topic of democracy in Egypt resulting in 1973 redux (and thus a source of juicy scenarios), I suppose that in the hubbub, political factions, like the Muslim Brotherhood, will throw their voice into the hat. Whether it is worth taking the logical leap straight to "caliphate here we come" is another matter. I guess the easy play is to assume Cairo2011 == Tehran1979, but that is just among the many wild-assed guesses that are available.

But what the heck, I'm feeling frisky so why not this Armageddon hoe down:

(BLUE)

M1A1

M60

M113

vs.

(RED)

M1A1

M60

T-62

T-55

M113

?

What both sides have in abundance is M113s, so we gotta have 'em.

I'd put 'em on any reasonable desert or Iraq-themed map and let it rip! I realize the M1A1 is no Merkava, but we've had to squint and imagine harder for a decade now on a playable OPFOR armor, so why stop imagining now? Plus the confusion of similar equipment on both sides will add to the fun-filled hijinks.

Sounds like some good 2012/Armageddon scenarios are forthcoming - I'm looking forward to downloading them.

Edited by tarball
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I too find the conspiracies of Glenda a little too far fetched for even an LSD induced hallucination.

The casus belli for the mission that I am working on involves a guarantee of defense by Egypt of the Gaza statelet (think Russia with the Serbs in 1914 and the desire of Russia to defend their Slavic brothers). Israel reacts to some provocation, probably not from Hamas itself which eventually leads to a campaign akin to Cast Lead. This then triggers the Egyptians to follow through on their treaty with Gaza or back down and lose prestige and face.

The assumptions of this geo-political situation involve the Ikwhan being a major component in a coalition government (which is more likely than them having sole leadership), and as such they get a major concession, that being the guarantee on Gaza. The policy has a catch though, Hamas can't instigate a conflict with Israel, otherwise the guarantee is null and void. This is to avoid absolute wrath from the US and as such suffer a loss of all military assistance, which is important to the Egyptian economy. It also avoids harm to tourism which is also important for Egypt's economy by not becoming actively hostile to the west.

As such, you get something realistic, a limited war with limited aims.

For the vehicles used in the mission I give the IDF the following so far

Tiger

M1A2SEP

M113

For Egypt

M1A1HA

YPR

M60

M901

T62

T55

Edited by TankHunter
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  • 2 weeks later...

I really like both of the OOBs proposed by the Ball of Tar-ness as well the doughty Hunter of Large Metal Boxes - now all I need is time. Like someone pointed out, a credible backstory doesn't just make pre-game trash talk easier, but aids the sce designer.

Given the IDF preference for first strike, usually by air, I wonder what steps would lead to an armor clash. If we postulate IDF air superiority in any conflict limited to just Israel and Egypt, any sce would have to have ample helo and air spt for the Israelis.

I need to go look at a map of the Sinai and Jane's Armor.

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