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Hello all After much deliberation, then here comes the first of the final touches on the campaign: Thanks to everyone who made it happen and thanks to everyone who participated. Now for the awarding - we have two Campign Ribbons. Silver is awarded for those who completed at least one scenario/battle. Gold is awarded for those who completed the full campaign and every scenario/battle. You know which one you are. So without further ado:

Hello Everyone First and foremost, then let me start by making an excuse: I am sorry that both Intermission and next Scenario in this Campaign have been delayed. The fault is mine. The next and final Scenario will be held on Sunday the 29´th of April at the usual time of 2000 GMT+1, so 1900 GMT. Again thanks to everybody who made this work, including the people who were a part of the Session. As usually then I recommend reading the PDF This is the Game list: https://www.kanium.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=11630#p11630 And the PDF BG Intermission 4.pdf The AAR became so huge that its impossible to post here... The Bears Gambit “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” Albert Einstein Intermission 4 By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved World War 3 – for generations Europeans have dreaded the words and the ideas it conjured up. Nobody really wanted it happen, but in the end, then nobody really was willing or able to stop it either. No matter what, then it is no longer just an academic concept or paper exercise. But rather it is a reality that the world in general and Europeans in particular will have to deal with, politics have failed and a military solution at least in the short perspective seems the only alternative. On the 8th of November 2018, the NATO countries invoked Article V of the NATO charter. This followed the events of the huge battle that took place east of Klaipeda and left over 100 Russian vehicles destroyed and at least 1000 Russian soldiers dead and wounded. The JEF comparatively paid a comparatively light price having lost less than 20 vehicles and 100 dead and wounded. The 1:5 ratio and huge victory, however did not quiet the few but very vocal voices calling for a full withdrawal and unilateral ceasefire. However consequently, and regardless of the tiny anti-war grouping in the west, a state of war now exists between Byelorussia and Russia on one side and NATO on the other. Or rather most of NATO, as France has declared that they have pulled themselves from the NATO command structure and refuse to be involved in what they have termed “A war of fools”. Turkey at the same time not only pulled themselves completely out of NATO, but in a move that astounded most has chosen to sign a non-aggression pact and a friendship and cooperation agreement with Russia. Turkey has stated that this is a case of “Chickens coming home to roost”, and that this is also a consequence of decades of being slighted by both NATO and EU. Regarding the latter, then it is somewhat unclear if president Erdogan was talking about Turkey or Russia. The TF´s of JEF have done well, as have all the other NATO units in the Baltic regions and other places. They have struck and they have struck hard. In the air then they – just barely - have air parity, but still have to contend with powerful Russian SAM systems including S-300, S-400 and S-500, which hampers the ability to do strike missions and CAS. They have however used this relative parity if not superiority effectively, perhaps mostly on sea. The picture that is emerging, is that Russia had been planning an all-out war, and a simultaneous attack on all the Baltic Nations, but that the actions in southern Lithuania particularly the heavy defence as well as the precipitous action that the Russians got dragged into with TF-48 and later TF-32 near Vilkaviškis, forced them to postpone the other offensives to reinforce and concentrate on their southern attack vector. In other words it seems that the war started before their preparations were complete. This is only partly good news as the same certainly can be said of the other side. Russia achieved total Strategic if not tactical surprise through the use of Maskirovka supported by applied politics in the Hybrid Battle Field. The Russian Baltic fleet based in Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg, which had been surging and deploying in the mid- and southern Baltic Sea, was baited by the New Allies which Media have termed the Western coalition, which includes Sweden among others. Information was deliberately leaked that a massive convoy action would fight their way to Estonia to resupply and reinforce units in the Baltics. This in fact was partially true. What was not said is that this was preceded by the stealthy deployment of almost all the Diesel-electric submarines of the northern NATO countries, as well as some American Nuclear Attack Submarines, into the Area of Operations. They passed the Danish straits of the Great belt and Oresund submerged, unobserved and unopposed. At the same time the New Allies quietly concentrated SEAD, anti-sub, attack and fighter planes at airbases across the area. Concurrently with this, then USA supported by UK deployed a combined and reinforced Carrier Air Group supported by several SSNs, Norwegian fighter planes, numerous ASW planes and all of the Norwegian SSKs to the north of Norway to engage and destroy any Russian vessels or submarines trying to pass into the Atlantic or operating in the area. At the same time then the SOSUS network have come under full military control again, despite loud complaints. In a twist of irony, then the Norwegian SSKs are now operating out of the reactivated Olavsvern naval base, which used to be leased by the Norwegians to the Russians. It has been strengthened, refitted and cleared of Russian surprises including listening devices and IEDs, and is now defended by a strong Norwegian force including SAM batteries. This is a move that has been mirrored across Europe as many former military installations have been taken over or reactivated by the military again, including the Swedish naval base at Muskö. This has proven to not be without problems as many of them have been neglected for years, and many former military areas have been turned over to civilian authorities, in a post-cold war effort to exploit the so-called, but in reality fictional, “Peace dividend”. The political eagerness to shut down military installations is a move that in hindsight has now proven foolish, ill-advised and short-sighted, not to mention very expensive. The European nations are thus finding out that reactivating units and installations is not just difficult, but also a costly effort. On the 1st of December 2018 the first hammer stroke fell in the Baltics, following the Russian reaction to the very deliberately leaked information. In a very complex and well-coordinated attack, the New Allies struck with everything they had in the Air, Ground, Sea and Below sea against all Russian Vessels in the Baltics: both at sea and in Port. While the Russians expected the attack, they certainly did not expect the ferocity and scale of it. This attack was preceded by massive and simultaneous attacks on the military and civilian IT infrastructure as well as infrastructural targets by the New Allies against Russia and their allies. In this they thus mirrored, what Russia, China and others had done to the west, and did it with a ferocity the enemy seemed to not have expected at all. Informally and unbidden, then parallel to these attacks, Russia, China and Iran were the targets of a multitude of coordinated internet attacks by numerous hacker groups including Anonymous, that targeted everything from newspapers to traffic lights and Governmental IT infrastructure. And thus the Dance of death started. The – very secretly – stated objective was simple but ambitious: wipe away most if not all Russian naval capability in the Baltics, while degrading Russian air defence and air power locally in that theater in the process. It makes little sense to say where it started, as this battle was waged across thousands of square kilometres and from a height of kilometres to a depth of hundreds of meters below the sea. Allied diesel-electric submarines that had been stealthily shadowing Russian submarines either torpedoed them or radioed instructions to Hunter-killer air ASW groups that destroyed most of the remaining. Most but not all the Russian submarines was destroyed like this, and although the allied losses in this Phase were comparatively light, then that is hardly a consolation to the crews of the two allied submarines or 3 ASW airplanes that was lost in counter fire or by Russians just shooting first. And this did not account for all Russian submarines. A Russian submarine managed to sneak up on one of the Surface Action Groups and sink one warship, while severely damaging a second. Another Russian sub managed to sneak up on the huge convoy and sink three of the transport ships and set a fourth ablaze. Both submarines were engaged and at least one is confirmed sunk. As for the Russian surface assets them some were destroyed in ports, which were struck by a combination of SEAD, Air-to-Ground attack and huge number of cruise missile attacks. Again this did not come without cost. Even though Allied SOF forces, including Swedish SOG, Norwegian MJK and FSK, Danish Jæger- and Frømandskorps, Polish GROM and English SBS and SAS had struck at Russian Air defence and Air control sites as well as military command centres in advance, then the Russian Air defence is very sophisticated and comprehensive. And the Russians are no fools. In the ensuing battle 27 allied fighter planes were shot down as well as one AWACS aircraft that fell to a sustained attack. Even though after action reports that almost all targets were successfully engaged and destroyed, then this is a severe blow to the alliance. Although the attack took a toll of almost twice that number in Russian planes, then this is a bitter if not Pyrrhic victory. Regardless of which, then it was a victory that the New Allies can hardly afford to repeat too many times. On the sea the New Allies fared better: in successive waves then Russian surface assets were mercilessly engaged and reengaged by air, sea and subsurface attacks by missiles, bombs and torpedoes. Even though this took a toll of another 9 combat aircraft, another submarine and two Allied surface assets, then the Russians lost many airplanes as well and the Russian Baltic fleet is basically no longer is a fighting force. But the operation also hammered home another problem: due to years of budget cutbacks, then there simply isn’t a large enough stockpile of smart weapons and missiles to keep this rate of operation up. In some instances then the New Allies are already starting to look at using less sophisticated ordnance. However there also exists a limited supply of these. There also exists a limited amount of Combat Aircraft, as the European nations who bought the F-35 fighter, has yet to receive let alone fly one of them. This in turn has forced them to re-evaluate their situation, which means interim orders of amongst others the Gripen fighter has been placed and production is ramping up to full 24/7 wartime production. But things take time. The Russians have struck back though, and done so with a well-aimed blow. Russian submarines that slipped through the not very tight NATO screen to the north, a screen that simply no longer have the strength it did during the cold war; have attacked and destroyed most of the undersea communication cables linking Europe and North America. This is an unmitigated disaster as these cables not only carried a lot of civilian information traffic, but also much of the Military communication. NATO is still reeling from this blow. The New Allies have accelerated the process of calling up whatever reserves not already activated, and pulling every conceivable piece of military equipment from storage or even museums and refurbishing them as necessary to get them into at least a reasonable ready combat state. There are both successes and failures in this. The Danes for instance have managed to get 12 M109s ready with new parts including new barrels, engines, torsion bars and suspension rushed from USA along with mechanics. Also they have pulled 12 Leopard 1a5DKs from museums and have done whatever updates and refurbishments they could and are now fielding them as heavy recon. Sadly the Swedes have discovered that most of their old JA/AJS-37 Viggens are no longer flyable, as someone apparently chose not to pay for the heating and dehumidifiers leading to corrosion and degradation of equipment and avionics. On a positive note, then the Swedes have managed to get some more Coastal missile batteries into action by stripping museums and spare parts from wherever they can. Similar positive and negative surprises are being experienced across Europe as the wheels of war are grinding into full war-production. USA has declared a national emergency and has stated that they again will become the Arsenal of Democracy – and are reactivating every ordnance, ship, airplane and weapons factory as fast as they can. They have also started recalling every reservist and person still covered by a contingency contract with the armed forces, as well as recruiting. And there are a surprising number of willing recruits not only in USA. This is in part also due to the escalating international situation where it seems that every dictator is testing the boundaries and flexing his or her muscles at a time where the west and USA seems fully occupied with other issues. Mixed ad-hoc battalions some of them equipped with weapons that include British surplus SLR and Bren guns have been fielded, and some deployed to the Baltics, along with whatever MANPADS, ATGM, Mortars and assorted support equipment that were in storage. Many of these are manned by National guard/Territorial army/Home guards units. Although good, then this in turn challenges the Allies Logistics because of the many different calibres and ordnance needs. Most NATO countries are nationalizing formerly closed barracks and military training areas, where this is possible – with predictable negative backlash from those it concerns. On the other side Russia and Byelorussia are also waking up militarily and have started reactivating their vast stores of equipment and ammunition, and recalling reservist and volunteers. The equipment might be old as are many of their reservists and not all reservist or vehicles are useable, but there are a lot of both. And ammunition, though a lot of it not modern at all, is plentiful. And a week ago somebody opened Pandoras Box. Even though no one knows for certain, then the initial clues point towards Russia, Iran, North Korea and China. In a massive leak that was simultaneous sent to press agencies, newspapers and Anti-corruption NGOs across the globe, and in a scope that easily dwarfs WikiLeaks, Panama papers and the Appleby Leak combined, then thousands upon thousands of files on decades of mistakes, corruption, crimes and cover-ups in all the industrialized nations, were distributed. Many hundreds of politicians, Political parties, business people and in a new move especially Civil servants, have found that the carpet has been lifted to reveal too many dirty secrets, lies and mistakes to be counted or countered. This has shook the nations at a time where they need to stand together, which indeed was in all likelihood probably the purpose. Surprisingly then this cache of information also includes every single traitor that has worked for the Soviet Union, DDR, China, North Korea and former Warsaw Pact countries until 1990. Many of these traitors have through the years won liable lawsuits against people who declared them out as traitors. In at least some cases across Europe, then seven of these named traitors have been murdered by what is expected to be vigilantes operating outside the law. The chaos is not lessened by the discovery of other traitors. The leak of information was a well thought –out ruse and trap: Many different versions and with specific different wording was put out to what was considered suspect persons. And then every resource was used in tracking them. In this way many national NATO and JEF countries was able to arrest people, most of whom was very shocked to be discovered delivering information to Russia and other sources. This includes national as well as EU officials. Some of these traitors claim that they acted in the interest of peace. But whatever their motivation, then they about to discover that giving the Enemy restricted information in a time of war carries a very heavy sentence. At the same time IT infrastructure in the EU and NATO countries are continually under attack and pressure, which is made more serious as it comes on top of the severing of the Trans-Atlantic communication cables. The same goes for Russia, however as there is less automation in Russia, then they are to a certain degree somewhat less vulnerable. The war is here and given the price that has already been payed, then it looks like this will not be solved with words.

ORDERS IN PDF: BG4 TF-32 OP SOLEMN SWORD.pdf KANIUM SUNDAY 4th OF MARCH 1900 UTC “The Bears Gambit 4 - Operation Solemn Sword” BY Nike-Ajax and SnS Where: Kanium TS : teamspeak3.i3d.net:10077 World Clock 1900 UTC IMPORTANT POINT: If you havent played with us before, or if it is a while ago, then please contact either @Major duck or @Swordsmandk to help you set up your Teamspeak before the day of the session - thank you. As always open to all Background: 1.Situation. a.Time: 081400ZNOV2018 b.Terrain: Wooded and hilly with steep ridge lines interspersed with small hamlets. Armd manoeuver is good in the centre of the AO, but is susceptible to direct FIRES from hull down positions from the east. Major water obstacles west and centre along 05 northing. South of AO, rolling hills give way to wooded areas ideal for ambush and water obstacles to east ensure manoeuver channeled. Good LOC north-south and east-west offer rapid movement B2221 major LOC for area running east. c.Weather: Clear Skies 5% probability of participation. Visibility 3400km >. No impact on sensor capabilities. d.Vital Ground. Town of MACIUICIA (OBJ ODIN) controls movement south. e.Key Terrain. B2221 major LOC east offering raid means for Russian reinforcement. Village of EZAICIAI key cross roads of LOC from north to east and south. f.General Situation JEF is poised to Attack EAST of KLAIPEDA, with the intent of penetrating the Russian MDA ITO allow FoF to EXPLOIT and PENETRATE Russian Depth. This is a limited operation designed to push Russian forces S and E opening up NATO resupply from the port of KLAIPEDA as well as strategically threatening Russian forces S of KLAIPEDA and making a show of force in the direction of Kaliningrad. g.Situation Enemy Forces: 1.Russian forces have transited to HASTY DEFENCE and are currently re-organising and re-equipping. It is likely there is only a limited obstacle belt protecting defensive positions. 2.Disposition/Composition: Russian force is mixed due to operational losses and logistic issues. Likely comprise of a BTN(-) sized mechanized force, BMP-2/3, BTR-80 and T-72/80 as well as limited number of dismounted infantry including ATGM teams. h.Situation Friendly Forces. 1.JEFCOM intent is to STRIKE & DESTROY RUSSIAN forces within boundaries in order that FoF can PENETRATE Russian DEPTH. TF-32 is deployed on LD VALKYRIE and is poised to Attack. NATO AIRCOM are confident they can temporarily attain LOCAL Air superiority and NATO MLRS Btys will support TF-32 Attack. To the west, elements of the Nordic Battlegroup and Danish Division, and to the east, the Combined Ad Hoc battlegroup of Baltic States and NATO forces will also Attack to FIX Russian forces within their respective AOs and limit reinforcement. 2.Most civilians if not all in AO have left, thus it is highly likely that any civilians encountered may be Russian supported insurgents. ROE Card 6A is extant and civilians can be engaged if threat to life is identified. i.TF-32 TASKORG; 1.TF HQ a)(1 x M113, 1x CV9040) b)1 FOO Sect (1 x FOV35) c)1 x ATGM Sect d)1 x Recon Sect (2 x CV9040) e)1x Sustainment Plt (medic, fuel, Ammo and mechanic) 2.A Coy Combat Team (CT): (-) a)HQ Sect 2 x M113 b)2 x Tank Plt (8 x LEO 2A5A1DK) c)2 x Mech. Inf Troop Plt (8 x CV9035) d)1 x Recon Sect (2 x CV9040) 3.B Coy Combat Team (CT): (-) a.HQ Sect 2 x CV9040B b.2 x Tank Plt (8 x STRV122) c.2 x Mech. Inf Troop Plt (8 x CV9040B) d.1 x Recon Sect (2 x CV9040B) j.T-32 Attachments and Detachments: 1.1 Recon Sect (2 x CV9040) 2.1 x Bty 155mm (6 x Tubes, 1 x MUAV) 3.1 x Bty 120mm (6 x Tubes) 4.1 x ENG Plt (4 x M113) 5. 1 x AA PLT (Avenger) 2. MISSION TF-32 is To SEIZE & SECURE Objs ODIN, THOR & HEIMDAL iot FoF can PENETRATE Russian DEPTH. 1.Extended Purpose. Facilitate NATO PENETRATION OF Russian DEPTH to DESTROY 1 TD Reserve. 2. Key Tasks 1.SIEZE & SECURE OBJ ODIN, THOR & HEIMDAL; 2.Preserve CE NLT 65%; 3.Minimize Civilian casualties; 4.BPT DEFEAT Russian CA. 3. End State 1.Terrain. OBJ ODIN, THOR & HEIMDAL SECURE; 2.Friendly TF-32 fit for future operations; 3.Enemy Russian Bn (-) DEFEATED 4.Civilian Minimal collateral damage and disruption to the civilian way of life. b. Coordinating Instructions: a.C2 No Change b.High Value Targets, T-80U, 9P148, PRP-1, T90 Command Tanks c.FIRES; 1x Bty155mm & 1 x Bty 120mm MOR Direct Spt to TF. Requests through P1 (FOO) d.ISR; 1 x MUAV 1 Sqn 45th ISR Coy e.Sustainment: CSS & Role 1 to provide sustainment & recovery at TF FARPs. Vehicles to be self- recovered to FARP by Combat Teams (CT). f.Command and Signal: a.Command: i.Succession of Command: SNAKE 6, A66 A65, B6. ii.Location of Key Leaders: SNAKE 6 with ACT, A65 BCT. b. Signal: a. TF HQ : 26000 A Coy Combat Team (CT): (-): 46000 B Coy Combat Team (CT): (-): 31000

Hello everybody, as promised then here is the background to Scenario 4. Next scenario in this Campaign will be held on Sunday the 4´th of March at the usual time of 2000 GMT+1, so 1900 GMT Again thanks to everybody who made this work, including the people who were a part of the Session. As usually then I recommend reading the PDF This is the Game list: http://www.kanium.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=11630&sid=9cb0393903efbeca6e39dd3254570c7d#p11630 Intermission: Scenario 4 Background.pdf The Bears Gambit 4 “War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse.” John Stuart Mill Operation Solemn Sword By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved DTG 081400ZNOV18 It has been just over three weeks after the battle that marked the start of actual full-scale hostilities near Vilkasviskas in Lithuania. Russia claims that they were attacked again and this time chose to pursue their attackers across the border to Lithuania stating, “That Terrorists, war criminals and gangsters will not be allowed to hide in Lithuania anymore”. Russia also claims that they only seek to create a buffer zone against aggression as well as Safe Areas for persecuted Russian minorities. Russia has thus gone from covertly supplying and assisting insurgents with materials, weapons and SOF operators, to openly stating that they feel forced to act to protect the safety of own troops as well as Ethnic Russians in the Baltic States. Many NATO countries are still in internal disagreement, with both violent and fewer peaceful anti-war demonstrations still taking place across Europe, and though not increased in neither number of participants nor frequency, they have become much more violent. The national police forces are increasingly striking down hard on the demonstrations, which has already cost the life of one policeman and wounded scores of others, and cost hundreds of millions of Euros. Yesterday 9 militant protesters were added to the death tally as Danish police opened fire in self-defence on the criminals after a unusually violent “demonstration”, led by far-left elements including ANTIFA. The chaotic street fights included burning of cars and property, the throwing of stones and Molotov cocktails on both police and fire department and the use of slingshots and what appear to be military grade artillery simulators wrapped with wire and nails thrown at police. The conflagration left scores more wounded on both sides. The Danish politicians as well as police, has backed up the actions of the police. After this then Denmark has declared a “National Emergency”, which in reality amounts to martial law. This pattern is seen across most of Europe, where the backdrop of war has led to very little if not a total lack of understanding and patience from the vast majority of the populations against the criminals rioting in the streets under the pretence of some vague political agenda. Also internal disagreements are still prevalent in the national parliaments and in some cases in individual parties. Norway in the meantime has nationalized the former Norwegian U-boat base Olavsvern outside Tromsø, angering the Russians State who had leased it through state-owned Gazprom. The Norwegians claimed that it had “A national need” and that this superseded financial concerns, and have reimbursed Gazprom for at least some of the value. Behind the scenes then most people could see that the former base had in fact been used by the Russian State, if not the Russian Navy Directly. Also Norway is desperately trying to reactivate anything that resembles something military. After having cut the Norwegian Army by 95 % … then it’s not much, but in a throwback to earlier time, then Civilian Norwegian men and Women are signing up for both the Home Guards as well as the adhoc training battalions that have sprung up across Norway: Some of which are not created by the Norwegian state, who needing everything they can, are forced to look the other way. Most NATO countries have now activated whatever units and material they can muster in the short term. Beyond that, then both the military and politicians are scrambling to reactivate whatever military resources, personnel and material can be salvaged from almost 30 years of neglect and budget cuts. The effect of generations of politicians and civil servants using up the so called “Peace Dividend”, something that has now clearly been demonstrated by reality and facts, as a dangerous, irrational and counterfactual myth and lie, is now proving very hard to undo and repair. In other words then you can only do so much in any given time, and certainly in the timeframe needed now. Thus no matter how the governments and especially the civil servants try to spin it, then the west have made a colossal mistake, and strategically at least then the Russians have achieved total surprise. The effort has at least by one newspaper been described as trying to do a 100 meter Olympic sprint, where the other contestants have already started running. This effort of rearming to the minimum required levels, includes repossessing obsolete weapon systems that have been donated to museums, and trying to get them combat worthy and ready. Surprisingly many European men and women, both former servicemen/women and raw recruits have volunteered for hastily erected ad-hoc battalions across Europe. Sadly the simple facts of the matter are that it’s much too little and much too late. At least to save the Lithuanian Capital Vilnius, that fell 5 days ago after very hard fighting. In fact then much of the city now lay in ruins, as Russian forces in a repeat of their approach in the first Chechen war tried to take the city in a fast surprise attack and with armoured units, suffering very heavy casualties from hand held anti-tank weapons, ATGMs and Lithuanian defenders who for some of them had more courage than training. A brave move that could not stop the Russian forces as the Russian in the end used massive firepower to subdue the defenders. The Lithuanian government has vowed never ever to give up the fighting. Across the invaded areas, bands of Forest Brothers (miško broliai), as Stay-behind units have sprung up and are inflicting casualties especially on lightly armoured Russian supply columns. As well as making reprisal attacks against Russian insurgents and sympathizers. The Russians consider them Terrorists, and kill them on sight. In this the cycle of hate and violence accelerates by itself. All across southern Lithuania Units from The Baltic States, NATO, JEF and all affiliated groups have fought hard, and inflicted surprisingly heavy losses on Insurgents and Russian Ground Forces as well as Byelorussian Forces. The attritional pattern of this follows more or less what was seen in the initial engagement east of Vilkaviskis, where the Russians are paying very dearly for the ground they take. This however has come at a clear cost, and cannot change the fact that Russia have made significant progress and now stand at a general line from Klaipeda in the west to Zarasai in the East, at which the Russian Forces are now regrouping, rearming and standing by for further operations. The Russians have stated that they will go as far as necessary north, as needed to create “Viable Safe Areas” and “Stop future Aggression”. Parallel to this then fighting have picked up in Ukraine, as well as an increased activity in the southern Russian republics by Islamic insurgents and terrorists. Here full scale clashes between Ukarinian and Russian armed forces have so far yielded little change in ground, as the fighting have ground down and both sides basically defend what ground they have. Also in other places sensing weakness, Islamic movements, both Sunni and Shia, have struck across the Middle East including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Iran and Iraq. This pattern has also repeated itself in India where several civilian and military targets have been attacked by terrorists. India claims to have solid evidence that these have been funded, trained and supplied by Pakistani intelligence. Consequently they have issued a full military mobilisation and are massing troops in the NW. Which in turn have made the Pakistani mobilize in turn. North Korea has declared unlimited war on USA again, claiming that USA has tried to kill their Leader with directed energy weapons of unknown origin and type. China is making overt threats against Taiwan, or what they call “An island of rebels and insurgents”. At the same time China has reaffirmed their unilateral claim on the entire South China Sea as well as islands therein. This has brought them into a direct conflict that has not – for now – turned violent, with Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand to name most but not all. In the meantime Turkey is massing troops primarily in the E and SE, thus directly threatening the Kurdish areas. Greece in turn has gone to full military alert and mobilisation as well, fearing Turkish parallel stated and renewed claims on Cyprus and other areas of contention. In South America then a desperate regime with millions of people protesting in the streets and on the brink of total economic collapse, have tried to divert the attention of its population by making threats against Colombia, Holland and Brazil. Colombia and Brazil have agreed to a defensive alliance supported by a number of other South American nations, and have mobilized some of their considerable forces. Russia claims that the west is directly supporting terrorists and insurgents as well as fanning the flames of war in general, and in Ukraine and the Baltic States in particular. But no actual proof has been supplied yet of these claims. Moreover they state that the latest developments are direct consequences of flagrant western provocations, and a failure to heed Russian warnings and pleas both present and in the past. Some western governments – principally France – are still trying to pursue diplomatic solutions at all costs, but most of the NATO countries find that diplomatic solutions – at least in the short term - have been exhausted. France have also tried to leverage EU into the peace talks, but as most EU northern and eastern countries does not support this line in any way, shape or form, then EU is increasingly split and thus marginalized. Also EU´s military arm have been made increasingly obsolete and useless by the events in the Baltics and other places, as well as deep divisions within EU. NATO and JEF as well as other intra-governmental alliances are arming for wars, while trying not to make it obvious that they do. Meanwhile and across Europe, then many IT hubs and infrastructure targets have been attacked by hackers and virus. This seems to be a combination of foreign, principally Russian and/or Chinese, efforts as well as domestic anarchistic and terrorist groups. This is not only information being targeted but also infra structural targets such as powerplants, electrical distribution nodes as well as traffic lights and water plants. However surprisingly then some Hacker groups like Anonymous have now publicly declared war on Russia, and are actively feeding authorities information on how to track down some of the perpetrators, of whom many have been jailed. Much to the surprise of many of the arrested they are mostly being charged with terrorism plus whatever else applies, and are thus facing very lengthy jail sentences if convicted. Turkey claims that the west is reaping what they have sown, and refuse to help in any way whatsoever, and have closed Turkey to NATO troops and are debating whether or not to leave NATO entirely. USA has accelerated reinforcing units across Europe, but has yet to do a full REFORGER style air- and sealift. They have however discreetly deployed significant air assets to Europe, and are recalling reserves and pulling materials and equipment from storage. In Asia, then the American administration has discreetly sent surplus weapon systems to Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. These include hundreds of older Harpoon missiles and ground launch units and FIM-92 Stingers, AA systems like the AN/TWQ-1 Avenger, AT systems like TOW missiles launchers as well as hundreds of ATGM Missiles. But this also includes more modern ones Like Patriot batteries and HARM missiles for the respective Airforces. China has covertly and overtly expressed outrage and anger. This however did not stop the shipments, the contents of which are rapidly being integrated and deployed in the three nations. But all over Asia the nation are mobilizing their armed forces, unified with the common - but officially undeclared - enemy of China. Other nations including Finland are for now holding on to their stated Neutrality. This has not prevented Finland going to full military readiness and reactivating all reserves, as well as discreetly receiving shipments from USA along the lines of the Asian nations. In fact many if not most of the other nations across the world, are increasing their military readiness in varying degrees. As a consequence of the events in the last months, then the Baltic States and principally Lithuania, have formally invoked Article 5 of the NATO charter. All NATO countries have debated this at length and most, except France and Turkey, have in principle accepted this yesterday even though the Southern European states have yet to fully commit politically and militarily. In line with this, then NATO have given Russia 24 hours to cease hostilities and start pulling back to their own borders. Otherwise NATO will formally invoke Article 5 against Russia, and act in accordance with it. Russia replied that they did not seek war, but would accept it – and finish it - if NATO started it. Byelorussia pledged full support to their “Brother Nation”, and in accordance with this have issued a full military mobilization, in tandem with Russia. China, Syria, Venezuela and Iran have openly declared solidarity with Russia, without specifying what that really entails. The 24 hours are now almost over and across Lithuania as well as at sea and in the air, NATO as well as Sweden via the Nordic Battlegroup are getting ready to strike back. But it’s to be done with a limited scope for now. The initial wave of attacks are planned to be a limited offensive so as to give Russia one last chance to back down, as well as not escalating the war further than needed. Russia has stated that attacks on their nuclear missile assets in Kaliningrad will be considered a strategic attack, to which they would respond strategically. The western allies for this reason amongst others, will refrain from striking certain areas, but will however strike at Russian Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence across Lithuania, in an effort to keep the conflict localized. This does not mean it will be easy: many JEF and Baltic units have been hit hard throughout the last days. But TF-32 is one of the remaining strong forces that will roll into action soon. For TF-32 one piece of good news is that Colonel Sexton has been replaced, and is now busily in charge of counting Tampons and Toiletrolls. The new Commander, Col. J. Eckert is providing whatever assets she can spare, scrounge or steal for the Taskforce. She expects every man and woman will do their duty. She has stated that she will provide every help she can, and kick every ass that isn’t helping fight the battle. Some of the officers say that she has much bigger … spirit … than the former CO. But not while she is listening as she truly is a scary person and a force of nature. SITUATION OWN forces are poised for an attack vicinity EAST of KLAIPEDA, with the intent of breaking the front ENY units and forcing through their lines in order for OWN follow-on forces to exploit the breach as well as to secure a supply route via the port of Klaipeda. This is a limited offensive, in that the intention is not to overreach and push further than what can be defended. The goal is to push ENY forces S and E opening up for resupply from the port of KLAIPEDA as well as strategically threaten ENY forces S of KLAIPEDA as well as making a show of force in the direction of Kaliningrad. We are at full strength and in the case of the Swedish platoons at +1 vehicle for both TANKS and MECHINF. Rules of Engagement NOTHING IN THESE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO TAKE APPROPIATE ACTION TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT. A. You have the right to use force to proactively engage any and all ENY targets of opportunity. B. You are cleared to fire first on all hostile targets or targets with deemed hostile intent, including armed civilians. C. The force should be used under the circumstances and proportional to the threat. D. We are De Facto at war but still in an allied nation, uncalled for destruction of civilian property is to be avoided to the extent that it does not interfere with the military goals of the mission.

Hello everybody, as promised then here is the Intermission between Scenario 3 and Scenario 4, as well as the AAR. Next scenario in this Campaign will be held on Sunday the 4´th of March at the usual time of 2000 GMT+1, so 1900 GMT Again thanks to everybody who made this work, including the people who were a part of the Session. As usually then I recommend reading the PDF This is the Game list: http://www.kanium.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=11630&sid=9cb0393903efbeca6e39dd3254570c7d#p11630 And the PDF: BG Intermission 3.pdf And the AAR: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1gpVoWy_9gxkI_maY3VOyl2JP-iy7V9Mb The Bears Gambit ”And when he had opened the second seal, I heard the second beast say, Come and see. And there went out another horse [that was] red: and [power] was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.” Revelation 6:3-4 Intermission 3 By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved How do you measure success? Or more specifically: how do you measure military success in the 21´st century? The military engagement that de facto ended the peace that Europe had enjoyed for more than half a century was by some considered a staggering and almost textbook tactical victory. For the price of 3 MBT´s, 6 IFV´s and 2 Attack Helicopters, then the forces of JEF inflicted very heavy losses on the attacking Russian forces: As the Russians controlled the battlespace after the fight, then exact numbers are hard if not impossible to validate. But it seems that the casualties inflicted on Russian forces far exceeded those of JEF: An estimate backed up by passive sensors, SIGINT as well as battlefield reports, would indicated that Russia lost more than 20 MBTs, between 40 and 50 IFVs, more than 10 Helicopters and at least 200 dead with many more wounded. This however is of little use to the 53 dead servicemen of JEF, with almost 30 more wounded. These losses are staggering to western nations, who for decades has either been fighting low-intensity COIN operations or waged wars on doctrinally and technically inferior forces, with training that lacked far behind the western opponents. The loss of two Apache gunships in itself is a hard blow, despite the fact that they inflicted very heavy losses on the enemy. Such losses mean that strategically at least, the Russians achieved most of their goals. Especially as JEF as well as the Baltic forces, were forced to fall back in the aftermath of the battle, thus leaving the Russians in control of the battlespace, which they quickly consolidated and reinforced. It would seem that the Russians were willing to soak up heavy losses in the pursuit of their goals. Europe it seems, not really surprisingly, is more Risk-averse. Something that in hindsight seems to have been a part of the Russian planning all along. The Russian news in line with this paints the battle as an astounding success in a peace making campaign. They also in line with standard Russian practise seem to downplay their own losses. Vladimir Putin in a press conference, made the following statement: “NATO, EU and the warmongering faction of JEF, unfortunately and ill-advised have forced our hand. We are a peace-loving nation, a non-belligerent nation in the greater commonwealth of the nations of Earth. However sadly then we can no longer sit idly by as Belligerent nations not only encroach upon our borders, but in fact attack us with not only economic and political means, but also with direct military force. We are peace-loving, but not pacifist. And we will no longer accept attacks on Russian as a nation, nor on Russian citizens including Ethnic Russians, wherever they are. Specifically then Terrorists, war criminals and gangsters will not be allowed to hide in Lithuania anymore Consequently I have directed our forces to create and maintain a buffer zone against aggression as well as Safe Areas for persecuted Russian minorities. We will expand these as fits the need for security for Ethnic Russians, as well as for Russia as a nation” From differing sources and surveys then it seems that a vast majority of Russians as well as their allied Byelorussians agree that the Russian operation was adequate and appropriate. In other words then at least for now, it seems that Vladimir Putin commands a unified country. This is more than can be said for Europe, NATO and EU, where divisions and disagreements already present, have accelerated and become clearer. This not only divides the trans-national organizations, but in fact divides individual countries. The idea that the engagement was a victory is thus hotly debated in both political circles, self-proclaimed power élites, news as well as in the framework of NATO and EU. Across the world the same polarizing effect has been seen, where few if any countries are willing to clearly pick sides. Even within the nations of the JEF framework, then polemic discussion and bickering is wide-spread. However then having engaged, the JEF members have found it impossible to disengage themselves. The Baltic countries supported by a number of other countries, both formally and informally, are “exploring the possibility of seeking further protection in light of Russian aggression”. Most analysts take this to mean that The Baltic nations are debating with the other NATO countries as well as JEF members, whether or not to evoke Article 5 of the NATO charter. Thus, and in other words if the Baltic nations should declare formal war on Russia. This is a complex discussion, which have turned even more heated after the events near Vilkaviškis. But so far this has mostly been held in secret and behind closed doors. Somewhere in Europe, in an editorial meeting within a major government owned public broadcasting company. The mood was sombre, as the people in the meeting room looked at each other and talked in subdue voices. None of them had expected this to happen. Or rather: none of them would ever admit to having expected this to play out the way they did. “This is a catastrophe, no matter how you analyse it. We are all losers, but peace and understanding seem to have been the first and biggest casualties in this war that nobody wanted and nobody can benefit from. What astound me are the actions of some other media as well as politicians: In calling this a victory, then these unenlightened, prehistoric and nationalistic fools, are in fact making a negotiated peace more difficult. The irresponsible idea that weapons should solve anything has no place in the 21´st century. And neither does nationalistic and probably right-wing nutjobs, which believe that a flag is worth dying and even worse killing for. We and others like us as well as international organisations like the Council on Foreign Relations, The Trilateral Commission, The Bilderberg Group as well as UN and many other responsible entities, have for decades tried to promote international peace, commerce and peacefully uniting the world. But the path of the righteous women and men seems always beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Not to mention the archaic ideas of nationalism, war as a political tool and conspiracy nutjobs, who seem determined to always misunderstand international policy?” Nobody spoke, but it was clear to him that – at least in this room – there was total consensus. Now the question was how to formulate and communicate this consensus to the broad and easily misguided masses. He would never publicly admit to the last of course. But that didn’t change the fact of the matter: the people needed to be led, chaperoned and guided to what was best for them. Because sadly then they were easily misled by people who belonged to another century. The editorial meeting took far longer than usual, in light of the serious context and their task. But as expected then it ended with complete consensus. Or at least the few who might be slightly misguided, dared not voice their dissent. Which was good enough for him: after all he didn’t run a dictatorship. Everybody was allowed their own opinion, within reason and limits. After the editorial meeting was successfully concluded, then he sat down at his desk, unlocked a drawer and pulled out and opened his Rolodex. It might be old-fashioned, but at least some teenager with too much time on his hand couldn’t break into it via the internet. He paused for a minute contemplating what he was about to do: was it right? He banished he thought as irrational: after all what he did was in a good cause and the right thing to do: who in their right mind could possibly argue with that? His first call went out to an American billionaire, whom he met years before, and who had impressed the Editor with his visions for a peaceful world where the inhabitants tried to co-exist instead of dividing themselves apart under different banners and flags. The billionaire listened and agreed with many of the points that the editor put forth. The Billionaire was a tough man, a self-made man, who having emigrated from East Europe years before, had not only created his own empire, but also supported the sensible solutions as both he and the editor agreed upon. Having finished the first call, he flipped to the next name. There were many he needed to call today. The high-ranking EU slowly put his expensive phone back in its cradle, thinking about what the Editor had told him. He always preferred a good phone to the modern idea of a mobile. It somehow seemed more appropriate to reach real decisions and agreements over a real phone, than the mobile one. Also he avoided the embarrassment of having leaked any number of private things from his personal mobile phone by keeping it apart from his public life, and with a secret number. Something he with an inward laugh, thought that both his wife and mistress would appreciate. He had no idea however that this particular landline, had been compromised by Russian Intelligence service a while ago. Enjoying the thought of his very young and pretty mistress for a minute, he then sat up and collected his thoughts: more pressing and serious matters needed to be attended to. He called up a word file on his PC and started typing, while referencing several other documents. It took him around an hour before he was satisfied and called in his subordinate. “We have a task before us. One that needs to be addressed the right way and the first time. We literally stand at the threshold to a full war. And THAT is something we simply cannot allow.” He paused and looked at what really amounted to his assistant, and made sure he had his full attention. “You will take this document and make sure that it is circulated via the right channels and to the right people. This will constitute the direction which we will try to make EU take, in avoiding further needless and irrational bloodshed. We have the backing of the rational parts of Europe. Our task then is to marginalize the nationalists and warmongers for the greater good of Europe as well as the world in general.” He focused on his computer again, and peripherally noticed that his assistant was still standing as if he had something on his mind. He tried to control his irritation, while refocusing on the other man: “Yes … do you have some questions about your assignment and tasks?” The other man looked uncomfortable as well as nervous. As he should be for not just executing his instructions, which were clear… But found the courage to speak up nonetheless: “Sir .. something bothers me about this. All of this. The older man leaned back in his chair, clearly unimpressed by the junior man’s deductive abilities. “Well… For lack of better words then it seems too convenient. It feels like we are somehow acting according to a Russian game plan or underlying idea. I can’t really put my finger on it, but the whole thing seems … orchestrated somehow…?” The older man narrowed his eyes and leaned forward, while speaking slowly and deceptively gently: “Are you somehow implying that I act in Russian interests… that I in fact am a Russian spy…? The younger man visibly paled and started to shake his head, but before he could say anything, the older man spoke up again, this time louder: “OR are you in fact calling me a fool, or claiming that I am blind …? Well. I am neither and I believe you have your instructions.” The younger man excused himself as he walked out of the office. Despite being reprimanded the he couldn’t shake the feeling that there was something fundamentally wrong here. He stopped and thought about his future, family and job. What if he was in fact wrong…? He mulled about his options as he slowly walked back to his office. Where he sat down and looked at the pictures of his family, as he made his mind up. He drew in a deep breath, closed his eyes and opened them again. And this time he looked with determination at the file in front of him, shook his head, and picked up his private mobile phone. He knew many people, including some journalist whom he not always agreed with but who’s integrity he knew to be rock-solid. It was time to see if it was just him seeking ghosts… “It was as we planned. The losses were within the acceptable parameters – the death of our soldiers are always sad, but they died for the Rodina and they will be celebrated as heroes once we have achieved Victory.” The Russian Colonel-General lifted his eyes to the President and other powerful figures in the room. He saw no anger or recriminations, but only the comber and determined looks of the assembled men. He had been part of the plans for a long time – carefully vetted before he was allowed into the inner circle of the men shaping the future of their motherland. Seeing no dissent and having waited for questions, he spoke up again. “We sadly must sacrifice the pawns to win the game. Every dead soldier is a Hero in the eyes of our Motherland, and our overall plans are running according to plans. We sacrificed what was mostly secondary or B Class units, and despite the losses, then we not only managed to inflict heavy casualties on the Enemy, which their Medias and politicians are even now lamenting. But as planned then we managed to hold the ground and push them back. This is but the first move in our game of chess. We accept a Gambit, to win the bigger game. And strategically we are in the favourable position. NATO, EU and JEF not to mention the so-called Baltic States, all know that the Baltic cannot be held or in fact defended. They might try to fluff themselves like peacocks but we all know it’s just for show. And that they cannot in fact stop the inevitable.” The men including the President nodded, as they started talking about the future plans, the wheels within the wheels. As the discussing progressed, the General was excused: he might be a part of the plan. But only a very small and selected few were part of or privy to, the overall plan. He really had no problem with that: it was a good plan and he accepted his role in it. And the initial Operation Priyome-1 had basically worked as planned. Even though he admitted that they had incurred significantly bigger losses than he had hoped. The shaping operations as part of the Hybrid war, was only now beginning to unfold. The west really had no idea of what was going to hit them. And still they stood divided. With that thought in mind, he smilingly left the secret location that the meeting was held in. The soldiers of Taskforce 32 were reassembling are refitting. They knew they had won, but they also knew that it had come at a high price: both economically and in terms of their lives. And no matter how they analysed it, then the fact remained that the Russians now held the border area. Their CO Karl Sexton had initially gone into a rage and yelled at the assembled officers and NCO´s, until his S2 had calmly and discreetly talked to him, until the Colonel left the conference room, however not before he wowed that “this is not the end of it”. However it seems that for him at least it was. Having made his report, then it took exactly two day before Colonel Karl Sexton was called into “consultations”. Nobody was told what was said, but it seems that the Colonel have been reassigned into what he himself termed “an important administrative function”. However the S2 who seemed to not only be good with battlefield and military intelligence, discreetly let slip that the Colonel had in fact been transferred to a function of “Logistics Support Liaison”. Which seemingly meant that he now had the job of being project manager for the “Reassessment of future military needs with regards to non-military supplies”? The S2 without laughing made the off-hand comment that the Colonel now commanded Toilet rolls and Tampons. Today the new CO landed in HQ. And if the former seemed somewhat harsh sometime, then she seemed to be carved form granite tempered … for lack of better words in piss and vinegar. If anyone thought that a woman couldn’t be tough or a soldier, then certainly no one dared to tell her. Col. J. Eckert is a soldier’s soldier, and a Spartan in every sense of the word. An unsubstantiated rumour about her is that she was once challenged by a military martial arts instructor who said supposedly asked her if he needed her mother’s permission to lay a hand on her. After she expertly and quickly won over him three times, he made the comment that the only reason she won was because he went easy on her because she was a woman. She allegedly then ordered everyone else from the room. What happened afterwards no one knows, but when the rest of the pupils came back it was to an instructor who not only had a concussion, but had an arm broken in two places. Some of the people present claimed that she then leaned down and softly said to the instructor that maybe next time she should call HIS mother, because she surely was more man than him. For reason not entirely clear, then the instructor never raised any complaints or filed any charges against her. The fact remains that the Taskforce have gotten a tough new commander Something that it seems they will need soon enough, as real war seems to have started if not in name, then in reality…

ORDERS IN PDF: BG3 TF-32 OP SOLEMN SHIELD.pdf KANIUM SUNDAY 18th OF FEB 1900 UTC “The Bears Gambit 2 - Operation Cautious Tightrope” BY Nike-Ajax and SnS Where: Kanium TS : teamspeak3.i3d.net:10077 World Clock 1900 UTC IMPORTANT POINT: If you havent played with us before, or if it is a while ago, then please contact either @Major duck or @Swordsmandk to help you set up your Teamspeak before the day of the session - thank you. As always open to all Intermission: Background: 1.Situation. a.Time: 170400ZOCT18 b.Terrain: Wooded and patchy boggy terrain channel Armd manoeuver and provide concealed AT ambush sites. Heavily forested areas in west and north of AO provide effective concealment, and will reduce overall rate of march, and can reduce observation and fields of fire to approximately 200 meters. Areas lacking heavy forestation provide good movement rates & observation and fields of fire from 2-3 KM. E28/A7 major LOC however good routes north-south and east-west. Major towns east & centre of AO represent significant choke points. c.Weather: Clear night sky – good visibility. No impact on sensor capabilities. d.Vital Ground. Bridge crossing points along border (EA CLOUD & NAI J4). River banks are too steep for BMP/BTR to exit water. e.Key Terrain. Area 112 & 113 provide good SBF positions to engage EN forces moving east along AA1. BP JENNY & PENELOE offer suitable defensive positions from which to enforce maximum DELAY. f.General Situation. On the 15´th early in the evening, JEF Recce units were engaged along the Border with Lithuania, suffered severe casualties and were forced to withdraw into MOB TRUMPET to reconstitute. After the initial engagement, Russian Light Forces quickly advanced and secured the Border crossing points, but have since remained only 3 km inside Lithuanian territory. NATO has NOT yet declared Article V, despite political increasing political unrest in Europe and confirmatory intelligence of Russian aggression. g.Current Situation Enemy Forces: Strategic intelligence indicates Russian forces are rapidly moving east into Lithuania and will soon cross the border at CHERNYSHEVSKOYE/KYBARTAI, 14 km to our west. They are moving slowly in our direction along A7 (AA1), in order to seize VILKAVISKIS and MARIJAMPOLÈ, opening up for follow-on forces and to threaten supply routes at Kaunas. Likely objectives are: a.Immediate Bde Objective: SECURE VILKAVISKIS along A7 axis IOT continue the advance with 2 Echelon towards MARIJAMPOLÈ, b.Subsequent Bde Objective: SECURE MARIJAMPOLÈ and thereby secure control of A7 and E67, enabling turn north towards KAUNAS. c.Immediate Bn Task Group (BTG) Objective: DEFEAT NATO forces west of PAEZERIAI IOT enable FoF to SECURE VILKAVISKIS. d.Subsequent BTG Objective: SEIZE LOC south of VILKAVISKIS IOT prevent reinforcement/resupply of defending NATO forces. h.Situation Enemy Forces: 2.Composition: Attacking Russian force likely 7th separate Guards mechanized infantry Regiment and 79th separate Guards mechanized infantry brigade, and consist initially of Mechanised BTG reinforced with MBT as well as possible insurgents with Russian SOF support. (BMP-2/3, BTR-80, T-80 or T-90 and BDRM-2). 3.Disposition. Russian forces likely to be cautious on initial Adv, but once engaged will likely transition to an aggressive posture, attempting to rapidly DETROY NATO forces and try to take VILKAVISKIS quickly, before Lithuanian National Defence Volunteers Division and other forces can fortify the city. 4.It's likely Russian backed Insurgents and SOF will attempt to create confusion in our REAR to support the attack. 5.The ENY BDE Arty Gp (BAG) has already moved forward in preparation of offensive actions. 6.The overall Russian Forces readiness at Bde level and higher to conduct offensive operations is unclear. However, planning has bene extensive. Due to NATO obstacles, it seems like that main Russian axis of attack will be south of the lake, directly towards TF-32. i.Situation Friendly Forces. 1.The NAC is meeting now. Lithuania has ordered it s forces to engage any Russian military on Lithuanian territory (Land, Sea or Air). NATO forces are rapidly deploying a heavy armoured forces with support to area east of VILKAVISKIS into the JEF MDA (OBJ VIKING). The Russian A2AD threat is preventing NATO air forces from patrolling the border area, thus, NATO does NOT have air SUPERIORITY or even air PARITY. Article V has NOT YET been declared. However, all JEF units are clear to engage Russian forces IF hostile intent is demonstrated. Hostile intent is defined as Russian forces firing or are preparing to fire on NATO or Lithuanian forces or threatening them in a manner that is objectively considered to be a threat to life. 2.Currently, elements of the Nordic Battlegroup and Danish Division are moving into defensive positions south of the TF-32 AO and a Combined Ad Hoc Battlegroup of Baltic States (in addition to TF-48, TF-18) is defending Route185. Both are expected to hold in the short term. TF-66 is conducting counter SoF ops. i.Rules of Engagement. NOTHING IN THESE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO TAKE APPROPIATE ACTION TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT. 1.You have the right to use force if you feel that you or other NATO & Lithuanian Forces or civilians are under threat to life. 2. The force used under the circumstances should be proportional to the 3. Uncalled for destruction of civilian property will not be accepted. 4. NO FIRES east of FLOT is allowed. j.TF-32 TASKORG; 1.TF HQ a)(1xM113, 1x CV9040) b)1 x ENG PLT (4 x M113) c)1 Recon PLT (4 x CV9040) d)1 FOO Sect (1 x FOV90) 2.A Coy Combat Team (CT): (-) a)1 x Tank PLT (3xSTRV122) b)1 x Mech. Inf Troop PLT (3 x CV9040) c)1 x Recon Sect (2 x CV9040) d)1x Sustainment PLT (medic, fuel, Ammo and mechanic) 3.B Coy Combat Team (CT): (-) a.1 x Tank PLT (3xSTRV122) b.1 x Mech. Inf Troop PLT (3 x CV9040) c.1 x Recon Sect (2 x CV9040) d.1x Sustainment PLT (medic, fuel, Ammo and mechanic) k.TF-32 Attachments and Detachments: 1.1 x ENG Sec (4 x BULLDOG) 2.1 x AD Sect (3 x Avenger HMMWV 3.1 x APACHE AH Flt ( 2 x AC) 4.1 x Battery M109A3 ( 6 x Tubes) 5.1 x TUAV 2.TF-32 MISSION BLOCK Russian Forces west of PAEZERIAI ALONG A7/E28 ITO DELAY minimum 1 ½ hours, the Russian Adv and provide time for NATO to reinforce the Lithuanian Home Guard units defending the city. 3. EXECUTION a.Extended Purpose. Provide time for NATO to reinforce city and MDA east of VILKAVISKIS (OBJ VIKING). b.Key Tasks 1.Rapidly Adv to Defensive positions. 2.BLOCK Russian Forces Adv west of PAEZERIAI . 3.BPT conduct HO/TO of reinforcing NATO forces within 3 hours. c. End State 1.Terrain. PAEZERIAI free from Russian control. 2.Friendly: TF-32 able to conduct further operations. 3.Enemy: No Russian Forces capable of offensive operations 5 km west of PAEZERIAI 4.Civilian: Minimal collateral damage and disruption to the civilian way of life. d. Constraints 1.NO cross border authority. 2.ROE- Card 65 – only fire in self defence of threat to life NOT threat to property. 3.NO FIRES into Russia. 3. Execution. A.COM JEF Intent: Quickly establish BLOCK west and south of VILKAVISKIS with current force IOT prevent Russian Adv Guard from initial Bdes from Securing the city. REINFORCE as a priority Lithuanian Home Guard units in City, but concurrently, continue to prepare MDA east of VILKAVISKIS & rapidly DEPLOY NATO Armoured FoF as soon as disembarked. Employ Attk aviation and Airmobile forces as SCREEN south to prevent Russian BY-PASS of MDA. Force Russian Bde Echelon change with FIRES and Manoeuvre Defence. B.CONOPS: A.SoM: Four (4) Phase operation: I.Phase 1. TF-48, 18, 32 deploy to assigned MDA. 1/45 Air Asslt SCREEN south of VILKAVISKIS. II.Phase 2. Conduct BLOCK west & south of VILKAVISKIS. Reinforce Lithuanian Home guard in VILKAVISKIS. III.Phase 3. Begin HO/TO of JEF & 1/45 with NATO FoF within 3 hours. IV.Phase 5. BPT BREAK engagement with Russian Forces & withdraw further East. 2.SoFires: FIRES & CAS to be primary means of engaging Russian Forces within Lithuanian territory & providing concealment. 3.Shaping Operations: ID Russian composition and dispositions and AA of Adv Guard of leading BTGs. C.Decisive Operations: BLOCK Russian Adv west of PAEZERIAI ALONG A7/E28 . D.Deception Operation: Establish 1/45 Air Asslt south of PAEZERIAI Screen. E.Tactical Risk: Limited obstacle belt prepared west of PAEZERIAI and MDA not yet complete. Only Light Blocking Force currently available and no Sir support available. III. Execution. Tasks to Subordinate Units: 1)TF-18: 1)DEPLOY to Area JEMMA 2)BLOCK Russian Adv east 3)BPT conduct HO/TO with NATO FoF within 3 hours. 4)BPT to WITHDRAW to OBJ VIKING 2)TF-48: 1)DEPLOY to Area JEMMA 2)BLOCK Russian Adv east 3)BPT conduct HO/TO with NATO FoF within 3 hours. 4)BPT to WITHDRAW to OBJ VIKING 3)TF-32: 1)DEPLOY to Area west of PAEZERIAI 2)BLOCK Russian Adv east 3)BPT conduct HO/TO with NATO FoF within 3 hours. 4)BPT to WITHDRAW to OBJ VIKING 4)TF-45: 1)DEPLOY to Area FIONA 2)BLOCK Russian Adv east 3)BPT conduct HO/TO with NATO FoF within 3 hours. 4)BPT to WITHDRAW to OBJ VIKING. 5)TF-66: 1)Conduct Counter SoF operations in conjunction with Lithuanian MoI. 6)Reserve ( 1 Coy 1/45 Air Asslt Inf) 1)BPT re-enforce TF-32 or TF-18 7)CSS 1)Establish ASP fwd of MDA; 2)BPT resupply, recover & re-equip all TFs on order; b. Coordinating Instructions: a.C2 No Change b.High Value Targets: MBT BMP-1/BRDM-2 c.FIRES; 6x BTY155mm Direct Spt to TFs. 1 Sqn 587 Attack Sqn 6 x (TIGER AH) d.ISR; 1 Sqn 45th ISR Coy (4 x UAV) e.Sustainment: CSS to provide sustainment fwd. f.Command and Signal: a.Command: i.Succession of Command: 0A, OB, A66 (TF-48), B66 (TF-32) C 66 (TF-66). ii.Location of Key Leaders: OA with TF 32; OB with TF 66. b. Signal: a.A COY: 26000 A1 PLT: 46000 A2 PLT: 31000 A3 PLT: 33500

Scenario 3 Background.pdf The Bears Gambit 3 “Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you.” Friedrich Nietzsche Operation Solemn Shield By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved DTG 170400ZOCT18 4 days ago, Russian forces were seen begin massing in Kaliningrad, in the vicinity of Nesterov, along Route E28. Intent seemed possibly to be to cut of Vilnius from E and NE, including Kaunas. EU and NATO have activated and deployed some forces, but have yet to declare war or invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter. All NATO countries are working around the clock to adjust to the new situation, but it seems the Russians have achieved total Strategic if not tactical surprise – a brilliant example of use of Maskirovka on a Hybrid Battlefield. For years the west including NATO and EU have sought to dominate the world through, what can poorly and shallowly, and for lack of better words be described as a new world order. They have sought to politically and economically influence and push countries like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea in a democratic and non-belligerent direction. This is an effort that has met with very little if any success. However as they have concurrently chosen to downgrade their military capabilities, this has in fact over the years become the only option. There is also the fundamental problem, in which the industrialized nations, with Europe in the lead, consistently choose not to accept and understand the driving forces behind the Russian and other similar nation’s actions. And that they chose not to heed the warnings given. This is even more so as many western corporations have made significant investments in many of the not only non-democratic, but in effect anti-democratic, nations. This means that any action against these would mean billions in loss and disruption in supplies and goods. As the western nations hands are thus in effect tied to non-belligerent actions, and UN is paralyzed in part because of the very real possibility of the permanent members of the Security Council using their right to Veto any suggestion, then UN much like the League of Nations stands powerless to stop anything. The situation is therefore much akin to where the world was in the late thirties, yet everybody in power in the western world strongly denies this reality. This is, among other reasons, because they have no actual way or rather lacks the vision to change or address it. Sharp tongues, to which no one in power has listened, could make the claim that the leadership of the industrialized nations, for decades have Rejected Reality and substituted it for their own. No matter what, then the reality of the matter now is that the manoeuvring room for political, economic and philosophical debate is getting ever smaller. And not just through the events in the Baltic Region, as across the whole world frictions and old rivalries are heating up. 2 days ago OWN Recon forces passed east through OWN FLOT after being heavily engaged by Russian forces at the border to the WEST. Russian forces initially engaged and pursued them, but seemed to be taken by surprise by the events and out of order and sync, and has stopped the advance and fallen back to the area on, and around the border, as they seem to restructuring and rearming from the premature push. They are presumably also receiving new orders. In the meantime, then TF-32 has replaced TF-48 guarding towards the border. Frantic communications with HQ has yielded little support or intelligence. Also HQ today asked for more and closer Recon of the border to which the CO of the TF-32 patiently explained that such an undertaking would only bring them into further contact with the ENY. And that such a contact would be done under tactically unfavourable conditions. A higher up Officer in HQ, Colonel Karl Sexton then ordered the CO to take all his Recon assets back to the border, to which the CO calmly replied that he could put that order in a dark and narrow space where orders are rarely filed. Nothing heard since then. Russia is furious and claims that NATO and Baltic forces again opened fire first, this time directly on Russian Military forces, and that they did this while being on Russian soil. Russia demands the handover for prosecution of what they call “Criminals and terrorists” and a “Fast and decisive examination of the War crimes”. The situation remains grim. As there is little standing between Russian Forces, and the areas of KAUNAS to the NE, other than TF-32 and its neighbouring forces to N and S, it’s imperative that OWN forces hold on for as long as possible to enable other forces to deploy. Politically then Europe remains polarized, with small but increasingly violent anti-war movements rallying under the motto of “what is the use/what is it good for”, and is in part supported, or at least condoned by, pacifist movements and parties, including Miljöpartiet de Gröna in Sweden, Radikale Venstre in Denmark and Die Linke in Germany amongst others. In the last hours an ANTIFA led demonstration held in Hamburg Germany went from bad to worse: one policeman lies dead and several others are wounded, while at the same time many demonstrators have also been injured, some severely. But even though the European nations are divided, then a rising majority of European voters seeks at least to some extent, to reaffirm defence obligations within NATO and Europe. The picture is less clear with their elected politicians. Turkey and France still distance themselves further from any military engagement with Russia though. The southern European States, with an exception of Greece seems to be dragging their feet deliberately as well. In Greece, then fears of another confrontation with Turkey, seems to be spurring on a more activist political line. In the last hours the Cyberattacks against both infrastructure and other select targets in both Europe and USA have been increasing. The preliminary assessment is that it seems to be a mix of attacks from Russian sources as well as other domestic terrorists and anarchists who have used the opportunity of weakness in Europe. The attacks also have targeted news agencies and pro-war groupings and persons. A warning has been sent to all NATO and JEF nations as well as others who have assets in theatre. Consequently many - but not all - of the NATO and JEF countries have gone to full military alert, mobilizing whatever forces they can. This seems to be the last straw for some - but not all - of the NATO and European nations who were holding back, with northern and eastern European nations clearly more active. But regardless of this, then NATO is still logged in discussions and has yet to make an official stand. And as such have not formally invoked Article 5 yet. SITUATION OWN forces have been engaged with what seems to be ENY Recon forces or ENY Recon Screen vicinity KYBARTAI to the WEST. The enemy casualties are unknown, but seem substantial. OWN Recon forces have passed FLOT and have assumed a defensive posture N and S of TF-32, which has been rushed forward to provide more strength. From passive and active sensors placed along the borders it seems that the Russians are now getting ready to resume their advance and the attack that seemed to have been temporarily halted by the engagement of its forward troops. Thus it is to be expected that they will resume their advance EAST towards FLOT and our position very soon. We can expect no reinforcements even though it seems that at least the Baltic States, Poland and the Eastern European members of NATO are assuming a full military readiness. OWN forces have prepared to the degree it’s possible with minefields, obstructions and dug-in fire positions. In case of overwhelming ENY forces, OWN forces are expected to hold out for a long as possible and to conduct an orderly retreat towards NE. Further battle positions are being prepared as fall-back positions. Range from border to Own positions 14 km. Rules of Engagement NOTHING IN THESE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO TAKE APPROPIATE ACTION TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT. A. You have the right to use force if you feel that you or other NATO & Lithuanian Forces or civilians are under threat to life. B. The force used under the circumstances should be proportional to the threat. C. Uncalled for destruction of civilian property will not be accepted. D. NO FIRES east of FLOT is allowed.

Hello everybody, as promised then here is the Intermission between Scenario 2 and Scenario 3, as well as the AAR. Next scenario in this Campaign will be held on Sunday the 18´th of february at the usual time of 2000 GMT+1, so 1900 GMT As usually then I recommend reading the PDF This is the Game list: http://www.kanium.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=11630&sid=9cb0393903efbeca6e39dd3254570c7d#p11630 And the PDF: BG Intermission 2.pdf And the AAR: Scenario 2 Operation Cautious Tightrope.aar And the Video: The Bears Gambit ” molṑn labé.” Leonidas I of Sparta Intermission 2 By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved Somewhere in Europe, in an editorial meeting within a major government owned public broadcasting company. The men and women looked across the big table at each other. The mood was intense and there had in fact been shouting until the Chief Editor had raised her voice and called the meeting to order. There were basically two groups that had opposing views, with a small group either hedging their bets or just cautiously choosing not to express their views in the middle. The majority group viewed the events in Lithuania as a huge and unmitigated disaster, a failure not only of diplomacy in general but of what some referred to as the “self-governing and autonomous war machine of JEF” in particular. The other and minority group viewed this somewhat differently, but not the opposite, and thus expressed the view that JEF and the Lithuanian Authorities, had in fact showed some restraint in an impossible situation. They all agreed however that military solution simply was not the way to solve anything, and therefore no solution at all. The Editor-in-chief raised his hand and voice: “Colleagues and friends” He had been informed that he was no longer allowed to say ladies and gentlemen, because this was considered politically incorrect, as it held people in obsolete gender roles. “We have a story to make and a reality to interpret. We need to be in agreement and find a common viewpoint here. I think we can all agree that no one is a winner when weapons are used” He looked around to watch the nodding heads before he continued. “So our job here is not only to show the viewers the horrors of what modern warfare does, but also of the cost to our young people. And why we need a political solution before this gets even worse than it already is, and before the soldiers are led into a situation where more of them are needlessly killed. Now we need to present this fact in an objective and neutral way, so all our viewers will see the facts for what they are: Proof that we need to be flexible and find common ground with those who view things differently than ourselves, because after all: the Russians want what we want: peace at all costs. We need to show leadership and pave the way for dialogue and peace. Now does anyone disagree with that?” If anyone disagreed – which the Editor doubted – then no one wanted or dared to speak up. This was probably for the best thought the editor, because who could really disagree with the fact that violent and military action was by definition a waste of money or worse? And so the editorial meeting spun into high gear with the news that would be broadcasted on the next Breaking News as well as in all the scheduled news bulletins. 5,56 mm or 5,45 mm and 14,5 mm or 12,7 mm? That has been part of the discussion in both political circles, as well as in both Russian and Western press. Specifically, then this has become an irrational but somewhat relevant question, because both sides claimed that the other fired first and thus showed Casus Belli, in what has by some become termed The First Clash. In other words: was it a Russian or JEF bullet that started the sharp escalation of hostilities on the ground in southwestern Lithuania. The Baltic States in general and Lithuania in particular are clear and vocal about their interpretation: Russia without any international legality chose to cross the Russian/Lithuanian border and engaged allied troops in open combat. Thus their position is that Russia de Facto has declared war on not just Lithuania, but in fact against NATO, the members of JEF as well as indirectly against EU. In line with this they are openly debating about formally activating Article V of the NATO charter. Also the Baltic nations have now activated whatever military forces that was not already on a war footing. Moreover they have begun activating voluntary militia groups and arming them with whatever is at hand including civilian and old surplus weapons in storage. The Baltic Nations position is, at least in part, supported by most of the East European nations as well as the member states of JEF and USA. Although these nations have raised their voices in support, in a more subdued and politically less belligerent way, then their support is firm. Some of the facts which most agree on are this: On the day of the clash between Russian and JEF forces, a lot of people lost their life and numerous vehicles were destroyed. It seems that around 30 Russian vehicles were destroyed and in excess of 100 soldiers, and with maybe as many as 150, were killed and wound whereas the JEF lost 14 vehicles and had 32 dead and wounded. These are staggering losses for the western nations, and far exceeds the already high casualties from the previous Operation in Lithuania, thus bringing the total up to 59 dead and wounded – in a country that is not officially at war, and in a mission that was not supposed to see combat. “It was too soon. Our units acted without the proper orders, out of sync and without the proper support. THAT is why I ordered them to stop and not deploy any of the reserves. When you strike, you strike to kill and not to annoy your opponent. And yet fortunately for us and our Motherland, then as God seems to have smiled upon us, we stand ready to carry out the next step. But we will have to work fast to use the chaos and confusion that our actions have sown.” The Russian Colonel-General looked at his subordinates who looked him squarely in the eyes, while they accepted his words. He could see it in their eyes: Determination and honour in serving their country. But he could also see realism, pragmatism and resignation in accepting his words. Mentally he nodded: his Motherland had indeed come far in the last years. Even though the operation had been started preliminarily and before it was planned to execute as well as without the planned support, then it still had managed to achieve much of what was planned. After all, he thought to himself, who in their right mind would not want Victory at all costs. The time for talks and peace were obviously over. Or rather: it was for them and their opponents on the ground. Because in line with their plan then Moscow still tried to pursue each and every diplomatic route, so as to formally leave no box unchecked: let it not be said that Russia didn’t try to work for peace. The Maskirovka was still running and it seemed that very few if any of the influential people in the west would even allow themselves for a minute to think that they were basically wrong: That all the words and ideas, of a self-appointed and self-inflated small but very vocal minority, were useless, worthless and unable to cope with reality. He allowed himself a brief smile: The useful Idiots of the 21´st century, was the fools who by trying to manipulate others and shape their minds into a politically correct, pacifist, unpatriotic and unnationalistic, did nothing except to divide their nations deeply and basically down the middle. And they did it without even being paid. Well … most of them did anyway. He clenched his teeth and focused at the tasks at hand: By sheer luck and the political and therefore military inaction of the west, then they had basically achieved most of their initial goals. But the timing had been off. The operation was meant to have waited for some shaping operations as part of the Hybrid war. Specifically then it was meant that the next week should have seen a number of operations of Lithuanian ground as well as initial operations in the other Baltic Nations and with the support of concerted cyber-attacks on a number of European targets. His troops were only meant to have made their presence know at the border, and threaten the Lithuanians and the meddling fools of NATO and now JEF. Well … despite some losses then they now had their excuse: Moscow would see to that. He had talked to the President earlier, who had been surprisingly calm and understanding. But he also made it clear that the Colonel-General and each and every one of his officers were charged with the burden of executing their plans successfully now. There were no threats made, because none were needed. They all knew and understood what was at stake. Or at least they would soon. “Shift and reposition our forces, coordinate with the battalion leaders, set all of our units to war alert and stance including activating the reserves and prepare everything for plan Priyome-1. Do your duty to me, the Rodina and yourselves without error or hesitation. Execute.” Then men came to attention as one and saluted, before they did an about-face and filed out . At the border things had become deceptively calm: The Russian units which were badly mauled were in fact only the tip of the spear, and after the initial fighting had pulled back to the area around the border. But not all the way back. And in the meantime they had been significantly reinforced. While they did not push east from Kaliningrad, then they did shoot down two UAV´s sent to investigate immediately and accurately. The CO of the JEF forces in the area, Colonel Karl Sexton, being unusually agitated and nervous – even for him – initially halted the progress of TF-48 and denied them the right to pursue the Retreating Russians. However after being subjected to political pressure then he reversed his earlier orders and demanded a close inspection of the border with whatever units was there. In fact he demanded that they push all the way up to border, to make a political show of force. The CO of TF-48 had patiently tried to explain that such an action would mean full-on battle with the now entrenched and reinforced Russian units. To which Colonel Sexton had begun screaming incoherently and loudly. Until the CO of TF-48 had calmly hung up. The remains of TF-48 have now pulled back and have handed over the AO to TF-32 which has rebuilt and reinforced since their execution of Operation Red Route 1. An uneasy calm has settled on and near the border, disturbed by the sound of many Russian vehicles moving in the area. But as opposed to the politicians and others who are desperately working on political solution, then everyone on the ground knows that this is indeed the calm before the storm. And that they are in fact in a rather small boat navigating the waves.

Scenario 2 Background.pdf The Bears Gambit 2 “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.” Abraham Lincoln Operation Cautious Tightrope By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved DTG 151300ZOCT18 “Maskirovka” Russian military deception, sometimes known as Maskirovka (маскировка), is a military doctrine developed from the start of the twentieth century, but building on older theories and concepts. The doctrine covers a broad range of measures for military deception, ranging from camouflage to denial and deception. And also in the later years it has to an increasing degree, included Cyberwarfare in different forms. Deceptive measures include concealment, imitation with decoys and dummies, manoeuvres intended to deceive, denial, and disinformation. The 1944 Soviet Military Encyclopedia refers to "means of securing combat operations and the daily activities of forces; a complexity of measures, directed to mislead the enemy regarding the presence and disposition of forces..." Later versions of the doctrine also include strategic, political, and diplomatic means including manipulation of "the facts", situation and perceptions to affect the media and opinion around the world, so as to achieve or facilitate tactical, strategic, national and international goals. Deception contributed to major Soviet victories including the Battle of Stalingrad, the Battle of Kursk, and Operation Bagration (in Belarus): in these cases, surprise was achieved despite very large concentrations of force, both in attack and in defence. The doctrine has also been put into practice in peacetime, with denial and deception operations in events such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Prague Spring, and the annexation of Crimea. The Russian doctrine of military deception has evolved with time, and it encompasses a number of meanings. The Russian term маскировка (Maskirovka) literally means masking. An early military meaning was camouflage, soon extended to battlefield masking using smoke and other methods of screening. From there it came to have the broader meaning of military deception, widening to include denial and deception. And today using the full spectrum of information warfare, at which the Russians are adept, as well as using non-military forces. “What must NATO do to counter President Putin? Maskirovka is the traditional Russian use of military deception and Russia’s seizure of Ukraine-Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine is just the beginning of a new multi-dimensional Russian challenge to NATO and the West. Moscow has established a new level of ambition – strategic Maskirovka – by which disinformation is applied against all levels of NATO’s command chain and wider public opinion to keep the West politically and militarily off-balance. First, NATO’s strongest military powers must demonstrate the will and the capacity to meet the Russian challenge. Second, NATO, an alliance of democracies, must re-establish itself at the core of a world-wide web of secure, mutually-reinforcing democracies anchored on the United States. Third, defence expenditure of all the NATO allies must move towards 2% GDP and quickly. Fourth, the Alliance must mean what it says. Strategic unity of effort and purpose is key to deterring Russia. Fifth, Europeans must take the lead in efforts to convince President Putin that Russia has nothing to gain from such an aggressive strategy. President Putin is an opportunist. He believes that the West is decadent and declining and that his use of strategic Maskirovka can keep the Allies sufficiently divided and politically off-balance to enable him to achieve his primary strategic objective: the creation of a new Russian centric sphere of influence around Russia’s borders and the ending of ‘frozen conflicts’ in Eastern Europe and Central Asia in Russia’s favour. Putin also believes that whatever weapon systems NATO has at its disposal, Europeans are so weak and divided that little or no military action will ever be taken against him. Putin may be right and his gamble (for that is what it is) could pay off if the Alliance does not stand firm and act together.” From “NATO: Countering Strategic Maskirovka” by Julian Lindley-French, May 2015 This is now also a part of what some have dubbed “Hybrid Warfare”. Wikipedia shallowly defines it as: A non-standard, complex, and fluid adversary. A hybrid adversary can be state or non-state. For example, in the Israel–Hezbollah War and the Syrian Civil War the main adversaries are non-state entities within the state system. These non-state actors can act as proxies for countries but have independent agendas as well. For example, Iran is a sponsor of Hezbollah but it was Hezbollah’s, not Iran’s, agenda that resulted in the kidnapping of Israeli troops that led to the Israel–Hezbollah war. On the other hand, Russian involvement in Ukraine can be described as a traditional state actor waging a hybrid war (in addition to using a local hybrid proxy). Note that Russia denies involvement in the Ukraine conflict. A hybrid adversary uses a combination of conventional and irregular methods. Methods and tactics include conventional capabilities, irregular tactics, irregular formations, terrorist acts, indiscriminate violence, and criminal activity. A hybrid adversary also uses clandestine actions to avoid attribution or retribution. These methods are used simultaneously across the spectrum of conflict with a unified strategy. A current example is the Islamic State’s transnational aspirations, blended tactics, structured formations, and cruel use of terror as part of their arsenal. A hybrid adversary is flexible and adapts quickly. For example, the Islamic State’s response to the U.S. aerial bombing campaign was to quickly reduce the use of checkpoints, large convoys, and cell phones. IS militants also dispersed among the civilian population. Civilian collateral damage from airstrikes can be used as an effective recruiting tool. A hybrid adversary uses advanced weapons systems and other disruptive technologies. These weapons can be now bought at bargain prices. Moreover, other novel technologies are being adapted to the battlefield such as cellular networks. In 2006, Hezbollah was armed with high-tech weaponry, such as precision guided missiles, that nation-states typically use. Hezbollah forces shot down Israeli helicopters, severely damaged a patrol boat with a cruise missile and destroyed heavily armored tanks by firing guided missiles from hidden bunkers. The organization also used aerial drones to gather intelligence, communicated with encrypted cell phones and watched Israeli troop movements with thermal night-vision equipment. Use of mass communication for propaganda. The growth of mass communication networks offers powerful propaganda and recruiting tools. The use of fake news websites to spread false stories is an element of hybrid warfare. A hybrid war takes place on three distinct battlefields: the conventional battlefield, the indigenous population of the conflict zone, and the international community This however is no longer a theoretical debate, as recent events in Lithuania have shown. It has been almost a month since the clash in SE Lithuania between Lithuanian Servicemen and parts of TF-32 on one side and Insurgents and what is believed to be Russian Federal Army SOF forces on the other. Debate has been raging since on what exactly happened. Russia has claimed that the events of about four weeks ago, was entirely the fault of Lithuania and NATO. The have stated that insurgents, whom the Russians claim only have armed themselves to protect their families, only fired back in self-defence AFTER having been engaged by NATO and other units with heavy weapons. Moreover they have sent journalists to the hospitals where young injured Russian-speaking men lay wounded, and under guard. They have also covered the events massively on all the Russian controlled networks, including among others the English speaking Russia Today (RT), and have said that this is merely the last in a long line of provocations from the west, with the goal of drawing Russia into a conflict she does not want. They also deny having any servicemen as part of the clash, but added “that they could understand why patriots felt a need to defend their brothers and sisters”. Russia have also cautioned against making or spreading “unfounded rumours that can create real problems and threats” and disseminating of “False News”. Russian has in fact called for reparations and an official excuse for what they dubbed “an aggressive and brutish act of international Thuggery” and “An unprovoked crime against the peace”. Russian president Putin, in a poke against the west, has stated: “We neither can nor will build a Wall against the West in general and the Baltic States in particular, why would we: the problem is that many Ethnic Russian have for generations lived peacefully in The Baltic States. It is not we would build walls” Russian diplomats have worked overtime with bilateral discussions with EU as well as all European nations and other nations and geopolitical entities – with a notable exception of the Baltic States and Poland, which have expelled all Russian diplomats and diplomatic personnel. Some nations have been more sympathetic or understanding to the Russian cause, with France as the biggest claiming that Russia needs to “Not be treated like a “Pariah” nor “Provoked unduly” or “forced into a position of using military force”. This in turn has led many of the former WAPA nations in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, to call for re-evaluation of French membership of NATO. The Polish foreign Minister has gone so far as to say that “NATO would be a better place without the French” and that “They would do everyone a favour by leaving it again, this time permanently” as well as stating that “The French are always there for you – when they need you”. These polemic statements have caused condemnation and outrage not only from the French. The Lithuanian Defence minister, when asked to comment upon this, quoted Jed Babbin in saying: “Going to war without France apparently IS like going deer hunting without an accordion. You just leave a lot of useless noisy baggage behind.” These statements understandably, have further enraged the French and have not made the French any more inclined to support the Baltic States nor Poland. Also many left and Centre left wing newspapers across Europe have warned against warmongering and called for restraint and calm discussions. This wish has been mirrored by many political parties in the European states, mostly but not exclusively from the political left. Anti-war demonstrations with small but dedicated groupings have been held across Europe, by ANTIFA and other groupings. Many of these have turned or were violent at their outset, causing massive damage. Turkey has stated that they consider this a local problem, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stated that Turkey is hard-pressed “to see the validity of the claims against Russia”. Moreover Turkey has said that in the current political climate they feel more welcomed and accepted by Russia, than by EU. And that Europe and USA does not accept anyone but themselves, and condemn anyone who does not mirror them. Turkey has also stated that they are tired of western interference in general and in Turkish matters and policy in particular. The Scandinavian countries have quietly further reinforced their military presence in the Baltics and have discreetly started calling in what little reserves they have. USA has reinforced their garrisons in Europe and raised their military alert level, but has otherwise not clearly backed one side or the other. America claims that Europe needs to stand together, before USA can stand with them. American President Trump quoted Matthew 12:22-28; “Every kingdom divided against its self is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against its self will not stand”. This however have not seemed to shift the political resolve in Europe. Rather it has led to some commentators stating that the American President should take care of his own house first and that his advice is uncalled for and unwanted. This position have that been supported by some European politicians across EU most of whom but not all are left-wing. Europe stands divided, but so does UN, where any attempt of getting a resolution passed that condemned the Russian actions, let alone one that would actually stop it, have been blocked by Veto by both China and Russia. EU and UN as a whole thus De Facto stands totally powerless, even though the debate rages on in both the UN general assembly and the EU Parliament, words are all they have produced for now. Some European nations have unilaterally and quietly started further raising the readiness of their military forces, and recalling limited reserves without making any overt threats, and trying to do it without provoking Russia and escalating the situation in general. In this process many European politicians and civil servants have discovered to their chagrin and for some of them horror, that decades of cost savings have in fact left them precious little to reactivate and too few soldiers to reactivate or even to man the precious few planes, ships and Tanks that they do have. And that many needed core military competencies and equipment cannot be reactivated on anything close to short notice. Something the soldiers, airmen and sailors have known and warned about for years, if not decades. No politicians or civil servants have taken any actual blame or responsibility for this as neither national parliaments nor the European Parliament can agree on the causes or consequences of what is happening. And therefore it is very difficult if not impossible to agree on a solution or strategy. Thus Europe and NATO stands divided and ill prepared should talks fail... The powder keg is primed for the first spark. SITUATION In the time following the clash in Southern Lithuania, Russian units have increased their presence on all the borders of the Baltic States as well as on the borders of Poland. Byelorussia has given Russia full support and liberty to move troops through their nation, as well as giving them command of elements of the Byelorussian military forces. The TF´s of JEF have been reinforced and rearmed, and have been shifted to an AO around and to the West of Vilkaviškis, in SW Lithuania, where they along with other units, have been tasked with providing over watch, recon and security to the area around the Russian/Lithuanian border less than 20 km. to the west. 2 days ago, Russian forces were seen begin massing in Kaliningrad, in the vicinity of Nesterov, along Route E28. Intent seems unclear at this time. But there is a risk that it is a precursor to an attack to cut of Vilnius from E and NE, including Kaunas. EU and NATO have activated and deployed some forces, but have yet to declare war or invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter, due to political disagreements. However TF-48, already in the general area, has been rushed to a blocking position NV of Marijampolè, around Vilkaviškis. TF-48, primarily made up of British units, has been tasked with providing Recon and security along the border with Russian controlled Kaliningrad further to the west. For political reasons the western forces have been instructed to use a light footprint and not to provoke or escalate the situation. Rules of Engagement NOTHING IN THESE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO TAKE APPROPIATE ACTION TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT. A. You have the right to use force to defend yourself against attacks or clear threats of attack. B. Hostile fire may be returned effectively and promptly to stop a hostile act. C. If OWN forces or those under their protection are attacked, then minimum force should be used under the circumstances and proportional to the threat. D. We are not at war and in an allied nation, uncalled for destruction of civilian property will not be accepted. E. Under NO circumstances are you allowed to cross the border, or risk crossing the border, so as not to provoke Russian forces or give them an excuse to start hostilities. F. Under NO circumstances are you allowed to use artillery across the border, so as not to provoke Russian forces or give them an excuse to start hostilities.

BG1 TF-32 OPERATION RED ROUTE 1.pdf KANIUM SUNDAY 21st OF JAN 1900 UTC “The Bears Gambit 1 - Operation Red Route 1 ” BY Nike-Ajax and SnS Where: Kanium TS : teamspeak3.i3d.net:10077 World Clock 1900 UTC IMPORTANT POINT: If you havent played with us before, or if it is a while ago, then please contact either @Major duck or @Swordsmandk to help you set up your Teamspeak before the day of the session - thank you. As always open to all Prologue: Background: 1.Situation. a.Time: 171100ZSEP2018, Local time: 1300 b.Terrain: Wooded and patchy boggy terrain channel Armd manoeuver and provide concealed AT ambush sites. Major water obstacles pre-dominate the area. Heavily forested areas provide effective concealment. A number of small villages are scattered throughout; the populations are most sympathetic to the Government, however, where the population is ethnic Russian, sympathies lie with that Government. Major LOC limited to single routes north-south and east-west – see map. Main City Šalčininkai, centre of Lithuanian Governance and security force base. c.Weather: Sunny with little chance of rain , 15 degrees Celsius. Visibility good out to 4km. No impact on sensor capabilities. Sunrise/Sunset: 06:54/19:30 local time. d.Vital Ground. Route BLUE – coordination points between R13-R15 & R14-R16 & Area FOX2. Control of these areas provide good opportunity to mount ambush attacks against the convoy.. e.Key Terrain. Villages at R19 & R22 must be SECURED to enable Convoy use of Route BLUE. f.Situation Enemy Forces. 1.Russian backed insurgents, supported by Russian Special Operations Forces (SoF) are operating in up to Company size formations within TF-32 AO, particularly between Marijampolis south to Šalčininkai (see Ops Trace); strength undetermined. They have succeeded in creating a chaotic environment and the rule of Law is disintegrating fast, overburdening the challenged Lithuanian security forces. Fox 1 & 2 are villages known to be sympathetic towards the Insurgents aims. The Insurgents appear to be well stocked with light infantry weapons including RPG´s and have also used IED´s to attack convoys and government patrols. It is likely they also possess ATGM of Russian manufacture, type and number unknown. Insurgent spotters likely to be used as identification of TF-32 Route of Advance and progress. g.Situation Friendly Forces. 1.Lithuania has requested support through its bilateral arrangements with Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. TF-32, part of the UK Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) has been deployed early under the bilateral arrangements. Russian Influence and support is suspected behind the deteriorating security situation and should actionable evidence be found of Russian overt involvement, it is likely Article V could be called by Lithuania and agreed by the NAC. Should this occur, TF-32 will fall under command of COM JEF. Lithuanian authorities have tried to clear Route BLUE, and declared this is the route they want the Convoy to take. 2.Rules of Engagement. 1.NOTHING IN ROE LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT. 2.You have the right to use force to defend yourself against attacks or clear threats of attack. 3.Hostile fire may be returned effectively and promptly to stop a hostile act. 4.If OWN forces or those under their protection are attacked, then minimum force should be used under the circumstances and proportional to the threat. 5.We are not at war and in an allied nation, uncalled for destruction of civilian property will not be accepted. 2. TF-32 TASKORG; 1.TF HQ a) (1xM113G3-DK, 1xCV9040, 1xFOV90) b) HQ QRF (4xM113G3/ENG, 4xCV9040 Recon PLT) c) Logistic/Transport Element (3.5t TRUCK-G/SUPPLY, 2 x 5 trucks) 2. A Coy Combat Team (CT): (-) a) 1 x STRV122 Tank SEC (2 tanks) b) 1 x CV9040 Mech. Inf PLT (2xCV9040) c) 1 x R2 (CV9040) Recon SEC (2xCV9040) d) 1x Sustainment PLT (medic, fuel, Ammo and mechanic) 3. B Coy Combat Team (CT): (-) a) 1 x STRV122 Tank SEC (2 tanks) b) 1 x CV9040 Mech. Inf PLT (2xCV9040) c) 1 x R2 (CV9040) Recon SEC (2xCV9040) d) 1x Sustainment PLT (medic, fuel, Ammo and mechanic) g.T-32 Attachments and Detachments: 1.Logistic/Transport Element (3.5t TRUCK-G/SUPPLY, 2 x 5 trucks) 3. EXECUTION 1.TF-32 MISSION TF-32 is to PROTECT Lithuanian Convoy 67 move from FOB ATHENA, Marijampolis south to Government Stores in Šalčininkai in order to ensure re-supply of Lithuanian security forces in Šalčininkai. a.Extended Purpose. Facilitate Lithuanian counter insurgency operations in Šalčininkai. b.Key Tasks 1.PROTECT Convoy 67; 2.CLEAR Route BLUE of IED; 3.If possible DETAIN Insurgent Leaders; 4.IDENTIFY Russian Support to the Insurgents. c. End State 1.Convoy 67 supplies SECURE in Government Stores; 2.TF-32 fit for future operations; 3.Minimal collateral damage and disruption to the civilian way of life. A.COM JEF Intent: I will use TF-32 RECON and Engr assets to CLEAR Route BLUE forward of the Convoy & IDENTIFY Insurgent ambush points. I will DEFEAT any Insurgent Attack using proportional force, limiting collateral damage to Lithuanian territory and population. If possible, I will seek to arrest Insurgent Commanders. B.CONOPS: 1.SoM: SoM. Four (4) Phase (P) Operation. i.Phase 1. RECON & ENGR move from FOB ATHENA to CLEAR along Route BLUE ii.Phase 2. Convoy 67 move from FOB ATHENA along Route BLUE, Team BRAVO front, Team ALPHA South. iii.Phase 3. RECON & ENGR arrive at Government Stores in Šalčininkai, conduct static DEFENCE. iv.Phase 4. Convoy 67 arrive at Government Stores in Šalčininkai, TF-32 re-organize for future operations. 2.SoFires: FIRES & CAS to be primary means of engaging Russian Forces within Lithuanian territory & providing concealment for withdrawal East. C.Critical to the Operation. ID of likely Ambush & IED attack points; D.Shaping Operations: RECON of Route BLUE; E.Sustaining Operations; Establish fuel & ASP at Government Stores in Šalčininkai. F.Decisive Operations: DEFEAT of Insurgent attacks on Convoy 67. G.Deception Operation: Move along Route BROWN to simulate Convoy move. H.Tactical Risk: Limited force against Insurgent Forces and lack of pursuit. Tasks to Subordinate Units: 1)TF-18: 1)Conduct Counter Terrorist operations in support of Lithuanian Security Forces in Area FALCON 2)BPT to support TF-32 operations. 2)TF-48: 1)Support Lithuanian Counter Terrorist operations in Area GEESE 3)TF-32: 1)RECON Route BLUE ITO IDENTIFY likely Insurgent ambush & IED Attack points. 2)PROTECT Convoy 67 move from FOB ATHENA to Government Stores in Šalčininkai. 4)TF-66 1)Conduct training of Lithuanian Security Forces. 5) CSS 1) Resupply, recover & re-equip all TFs on order 4. COORD & C2 - OPERATION RED ROUTE 1 a.Movement Timings. H Hour no change b.C2 No Change c.High Value Targets: Russian backed Insurgent leaders, Russian SoF. d.FIRES; All call for FIRES through A66 and only by authorization of Lithuanian Authorities. Likelihood of authorization is LOW. e.ISR; nil f.Sustainment: CSS to provide sustainment from FOB PRICE; g.Medical Evacuation. All casualties will be evacuated to the main Lithuanian hospital in Šalčininkai. h.Detainees. All detained Insurgents or Russian POW are to be taken to the Lithuanian Police Detention Centre in Šalčininkai and handed over to Lithuanian security forces. i.ROE (also see above). 1. All EN targets must be positively identified before firing. 2. ROE Card 65 in force. 3. FIRES will NOT be authorised in Urban areas unless there is significant risk to Friendly Force (FF) Life. 4. All calls for FIRES through A66, but authorization in such circumstances remains with Lithuanian JTF, and likelihood of authorization is LOW. 5.We are not at war and in an allied nation, uncalled for destruction of civilian property will not be accepted. j.Recovery. Damaged vehicles are to be towed. No damaged vehicle is to be left for potential use by insurgents. k.Command and Signal: a.Command: i.Succession of Command: 0A, OB, A66 (TF-48), B66 (TF-18) C 66 (TF-66). ii.Location of Key Leaders: OA with TF 48; OB with TF 66. b. Signal: i.TF HQ : 26000 ii.A Coy Combat Team (CT): (-): 46000 iii.B Coy Combat Team (CT): (-): 31000

Hello everybody, as promised then here is the Intermission between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, as well as the AAR. Next scenario in this Campaign will be held on Sunday the 4´th of february at the usual time of 2000 GMT+1 This is the Game list: http://www.kanium.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=11630&sid=9cb0393903efbeca6e39dd3254570c7d#p11630 And the PDF: BG Intermission 1.pdf And the AAR: BG Scenario 1 Operation Red Route 1.aar The Bears Gambit ” Speak softly, and carry a big stick." Theodore Roosevelt Jr. Intermission 1 By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved “Why?” The word was softly spoken, but the undertones were anything but. The men sitting on the other side of the desk looked at each other, seeking strength from the company. But as the president looked at them one at a time his blue eyes seemed to strip them of both security and strength. The men did not wish to be here, at least not with this message. And right now they all felt very alone. “No? No one wants to take responsibility for this fiasco? Then allow me to outline what happened: As part of our Hybrid war, then it was your responsibility to discreetly and with no ties to our Beloved Rodina, support and safeguard our patriotic brothers in, what is in spirit and soon will be in fact, an integral part of our Motherland. You were to do this in a low key way, and in such a way that you would not disturb the near abroad. It is not that you engaged militarily with our enemies: it was that you did it in such a clumsy way and left too many clues that NATO, EU and the Baltic Nations can use against us and as a rallying cry. Like in Ukraine we needed the world to see that this is not us against them, but rather them against Russian citizens. And in the process highlight and showcase western hypocrisy as well as weakness. In failing to achieve this, then you have limited our options and forced ahead our schedule.” He thoughtfully raised his glass of tea and sipped it, while he contemplated the plans, time schedules and windows of opportunity. One of the men looked at the others, cleared his throat, and spoke up: “My President, we tried to obscure any ties to ourselves. We used American vehicles that we bought from Iran, who got them from Iraq. We used weapons that are widely distributed, and even got some American Javelins. True that we had some Russian vehicles, including reconnaissance vehicles, but nothing that can be directly tied to Russia. Our Spetznas wasn’t directly involved in the operation, which might have changed the outcome more positively in our favor. But even though the convoy got through, then we still inflicted heavy losses on them which politically will be a hard pill to swallow for a Europe gone soft” The President of Russia looked at the man without malice, and perhaps even with kindness. After all he had the courage to speak up and be honest, something which should always be encouraged. Then he turned to the assembled men, while he collected his thoughts. “Gentlemen … this is not the Soviet union: we do not send people to Gulag or have them shot in the back of the head while passing through a door in the basement of Lubyanka and Vasily Blokhin is not waiting outside. But despite your efforts, then you need to do better: Not just for me, but for your country, your grandchildren and all those who sacrificed everything to bring us here. We are at a critical juncture and even though we have been careful and planned meticulously, then no matter how we planned this, then we knew that there would come a decisive time when we could no longer work in the shadows. We are very close but timing and context are everything. If we stumble and fall now, then it will take another revolution to save the Motherland. A revolution the outcome of which no one can predict, other than it would hurt our Motherland. Now: this means we will move our plans forward. The die is cast. You will ready our troops while we step up our diplomatic efforts as well as sow discord in their ranks in accordance with the concept of Hybrid Warfare.” The men looked both relieved and determined, and this time they all met his gaze squarely and nodded. The rest of the meeting served to iron out their plans and deadlines as well as adjust what needed to change. When they left and after the door had closed then the man laid his hands on his desk and sighed … so much time and sacrifice had gone into this. Sometimes he doubted if he had the strength to fulfill his country’s destiny. But he could not allow himself the weakness of doubting the road they were on. He took a deep breath and raised his gaze while he clenched his teeth. Then he grabbed his telephone and started making calls. “They did WHAT?” The high-ranking EU official glared at his subordinate as if he could somehow will him away, and thereby make the problem disappear. The man in front of him pursed his lips, and looked at his papers: “Soldiers of the Joint Expeditionary Force two days ago engaged in what amounted to a running battle with what they have described as well-equipped and well-trained insurgents. They claim that there are numerous clues and evidence that points to Russian support including the weapons that were used. Moreover they have stated that they used minimum force in accordance with their Rules of Engagement and that they showed restraint in the face of an armed military attack” The subordinate civil servant wished that he was somewhere else and he comptemplated different excuses for leaving the office, but none would hold up to the fury of his boss. He knew that the man in front of him had little patience for anything that did not go according to his plans and wishes. The senior official looked as if he was close to a heart attack, his mouth opening and closing repeatedly, which due to his considerable bulk, unwittingly made him look somewhat like a catfish pulled onto land. Not that his subordinate would ever dare say that aloud – his boss was not known for his sense of humor or for his forgiving nature. The senior official slammed his hand hard into the table, which startled the other man. “If those damn soldiers had used their heads instead of acting like the unenlightened brutes that they are, then we would have more political options. Don’t the Jarheads understand just how much money the west has invested in Russia or how long we have worked for a political long-term solution with them?” The subordinate did not want to point out that these were not US Marines but rather mostly Scandinavian soldiers. Nor that the civilian and military authorities in both the JEF and Lithuania backed up the report made by the commanding officer. In fact he was concerned, as there was something he couldn’t quite put his finger on; some nagging thought that he couldn’t quite formulate about the whole incident. Well … He knew better than to jeopardize his career and future by picking lost causes. Better to agree with his boss. “Yes sir, I agree completely. But it seems that there isn’t anything we can use to force the soldiers of the JEF out on the Baltics, as the Baltic Nations are in fact calling for more resources and soldiers to help with their defense. And the Lithuanian Authorities have already released much of the evidence as well as statements from locals. And not just to us, but also to the international media” His superior looked as if another heart attack was imminent, and the leaned forward over the table as if to give his words more weight: “They must be quite mad if they think we are going to escalate this further. We need the soldiers out of there – and now – and have this turned over to the proper authorities such as The Permanent Structured Cooperation and The Common Security and Defence Policy in our EU aegis. We need to control this politically and based on dialogue. So … how soon can we have them out?” The lower Civil Servant, who in fact wasn’t so low on the ladder, moved uncomfortably in his seat while he desperately looked for an answer that would satisfy the older man. Having found none, he deflated and with an even voice gave the only answer he could, knowing that it would send his boss into another rage: “Sir … I am sorry, but we can’t do that. The JEF is not an EU institution or organization, and the United Kingdom is formally on its way out of EU. Also the Baltic States as well as Poland have made it crystal clear that they want JEF on the ground … and NATO as well. In fact yesterday they went as far as to state, that the EU is not yet ready if ever to take over any defense, let alone in this situation. And that they put their trust in JEF and the pact of NATO, and that they are willing to invoke Article V if need be. They have also said that this is the last line in a series of Russian provocations, and as an example says that the Baltic States had to scramble fighter planes 130 times in 2017 alone to repel Russian combat airplanes from their airspace”. He took a deep breath and awaited the reaction which was not long in the making. The face of the senior official seemed to go through several shades of red and purple, before he answered: “The damn fools. Don’t they understand that we are in the 21´st century and that we don’t solve conflicts with war? We cannot just let loose the rabid dogs of war. Well … they will not get the help from us to do their warmongering. We need to prepare a political solution for the politicians to go over. It is going to be along night. ” The junior civil servant nodded. Inwardly he cringed at the thought of having to call his wife to tell her that dinner and movie was cancelled. Meanwhile in Lithuania, then the soldiers from JEF were tired, with days of uncertainty and inaction being abruptly ended with the violent clash in southern Lithuanian. They all knew what they signed up for, all of them being volunteers. But the scale and ferocity of the fighting still had surprised most of them. Like many military actions it had been a question of hurry up and wait, with periods of almost boredom broken with frantic and violent action. The action which had left at least the equivalent of 3 companies of insurgents dead, added to which were a number of wounded and captured. But this was far from all: almost 20 enemy vehicles destroyed including a BRDM, 5 technicals as well as at least five Cougar MRAPs and another five RG-31s destroyed. This came as a chock to the countries of manufacture, and has spawned an international investigation. Added to this then some of the dead insurgents were found in the possession of American made FGM-148 Javelin AT missiles. USA has vehemently and forcibly denied any and all involvement and has enraged started their own investigations into how these weapons and vehicles found their way to Lithuania. This did not stop the convoy, which managed to arrive almost intact at the government stores. However this did come at a cost: One M113 and one CV9040 were destroyed, along with their crews and a STRV122 was very heavily damaged. More vehicles were damaged and some civilians also lost their life in the clashes. In all 16 Soldiers of the JEF was killed and another 11 wounded – some of them severely. This is a hard blow to nations who are used to the lower intensity COIN operations in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. Russia in the meantime has tried to claim that these weapons show that the insurgents at least in part were supplied by the Americans. This is something which very few outside Russia believe however. This is reinforced by the fact that a number of Russian speaking insurgents have been interrogated, of which at least some are former Russian soldiers. Also the Lithuanian authorities have searched the remains of the vehicles as well as having made numerous arrests, have released documents which indirectly implicate a number of former and serving Russian officers. This includes Colonel General Nikolai Fedorovich Tkachev, a person that has also had alleged links with the downing of the Civilian airplane MH17 over Ukraine by a Russian BUK missile launcher. But all this is politics. The soldiers on the ground just know that they have been rudely awoken to the fact that the conflict is now more than showing the flag. Many of them are veterans primarily from deployments to places like Iraq and Afghanistan, and they were used to dealing with stressful situation. But the conflict has moved very close now. It is one thing to fight an enemy in battle thousands of kilometers from your home and loved ones. But it is quite another to do so with the threat of escalation that could directly endanger their families, friends and countries. The men and women cast glances among each other while they cleaned and serviced their equipment. Nobody said anything, but they all thought the same: Not us, not now and not a real war. It is not that they were cowards – far from it. But courage is doing what needs to be done, even when you are scared. And the apprehension that could be felt everywhere in camp was built on a very real threat. They all wished that they had more weapons and soldiers. But they would do their duty with what they had. Nobody wanted to say the words, but everyone thought about the same: World War Three?

In the hopes that everyone have had a good New Year, and looking forward to 2018, then this is the prologue to the Campaign "The Bears Gambit". My recommendation is that you read it in the attached PDF format document. This Campaign will start at sunday 21´st of January 2018, and run through February to March. As usually, then it is open to all. More information to follow - and to be continued... The Bears Gambit "My dear brothers, never forget, when you hear the progress of enlightenment vaunted, that the devil's best trick is to persuade you that he doesn't exist!" Charles Pierre Baudelaire Prologue By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved Leningrad 1975 The young man left the grounds of Leningrad State University, smiling he looked up at the imposing structure. As his eyes fell on the Soviet flag gently swaying in the wind and his smile faded. He was a Russian, and a proud one, but Communism to him was a blind alley, far away from civilization. Not that he would ever say that out loud, being intelligent not just in the books as his freshly acquired Law degree proved, but also in the ways of the party and the ways power worked. His Professor Anatoly Aleksandrovich Sobchak and he had had many quiet and discreet talks: what would be the future of his beloved country. And would the future be under and through the Communist party? He mentally shrugged his shoulders; it was a theoretical discussion, and a forbidden one at that. He was a member of the Communist party because he needed to be, and because it was a way to power – in a way the only one. And to serve his nation as he wanted he could not allow himself to be compromised… And besides … working for Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti, was probably not a place to show anything but undying devotion to the Party, he thought to himself as he laughed. He had just been accepted to training the day before. Looking one last time thoughtfully at the flag he turned and continued. Germany 1989 He looked out the window, disgust and irritation curling up his lip. Stupidity, weakness and incompetence… THOSE were the keywords of the new Soviet president: Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev might talk about his new ideas of Perestroika and Glasnost. But to him they were Nekulturnyi, irrational and worst of all weak. Even Chernenko was less of a disaster he mused to himself, as he sadly shook his head. The Soviet leadership had managed to weaken his beloved Rodina … and he knew it would be worse before it became better again. Seeing the East German youths waving banners and chanting slogans, something which only months before would have sent them to prison or worse, he shook his head again and turned back to the files that he was burning to keep them out of reach of the mob. While working he wowed that he would make his Motherland Great Again … Somehow and someday. Saint Petersburg 1991 He smiled at the men sitting at the table. His old professor had done well for himself: Being a mayor of Saint Petersburg, a name he actually preferred to the old one. And the Professor had helped him with his newfound power. His smiled faded as he took a look out the window at the street littered with old veterans covered with medals and begging to get food … or more likely more money for the next bottle of vodka. His country needed a new future… HE needed a new future. He had done his best, brokering deals for food, which his countrymen desperately needed - and for this he had been investigated. There would be a time for reckoning later, both for the traitors and for the countries that had raped his country and even now was laughing at it. A cold calm fury settled into him: he could not allow himself to lose focus. There was too much to do, and only barely enough time. He didn’t know many of them by name; he knew Medvedev was another of his old professor’s students and protégées, but the others he didn’t really know. This was part of the overall idea, which he had thought up with his old professor. What they were doing would help shape the future of their country and help save its future and people. The men were powerful, clever and intelligent – and they also in each of their own fields were powerbrokers. Together they possessed a vast amount of power, and if their plans worked then would become even more powerful in time. His old professor raised his hand, and the room fell silent. “They say that to make an omelet, then you need to break some eggs. Maybe that it’s true. Or maybe that is just another oversimplification like the ones that the foreign nations use when they talk of our nation. They think we are beaten, they think they have won and they think they can take away our power, our resources and remove all the buffer states, that our forefathers through hundreds of years died for, in order to safeguard our Rodina against the foreign powers that have tried again and again to invade us from all sides of the compass except North. And do it while making fools of us, humiliating our Great Motherland. Well – my friends and fellow patriots. We are not beaten. We may be on our knees, but the advantage from being on your knees is that you see things other people do not. And that our enemies and adversaries will underestimate us. So what we will use is patience, our willpower and the freedom of action that the fact that they underestimate us gives. The old system fell because it was a weak and corrupt system, built on irrational and delusional ideas. But Russia existed before communism, and it will survive it too. Metal tempered in fire and cold becomes stronger. What we will plan today is the future of our Country. Our plan will take years if not decades and demand the utmost sacrifices. Maybe even our lives. We who are here are ready to make that sacrifice. We don’t plan for the short scope and short term. We will get a better and stable future for our grandchildren. The west, despite all their power, is weak: they are bound to goals on the short term, because they have to bribe their voters every 3 to 5 years. Because of this their politicians wants to take the easy solutions. But we will not make the same mistake that they did and underestimate them. Their democracy makes them both strong but at the same time weak. In this they are much the same as the Communists who managed to squander our countries valuables away on stupidity and irrationality and helped by useful Idiots and traitors in the west. However, as I said, then they are not to be underestimated. Democracies are capable of astounding feats of production, military engineering and endless cruelty if awoken, like the Germans and Japanese in general, and the people of Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki in particular, learned the hard way. Like a bear it is better to let them sleep, and slip unseen and quietly by them until we are ready to face them on our terms, when we are strong and they are weak. We will forge a new road, we will make a new future and we will do it by taking the best from both systems. And we will make a system that in 25 years will be stronger than either. From weakness we will build greatness. And we will have to accept the humiliation that the west subjects us to now, in the knowledge that our country needs to be hardened – like a sword is hardened in fire and cold. But like a sword our cause needs to be tempered the right way: show flexibility, so we have the adaptability our enemies and our predecessors lacked. And not break in the process, but rather seize the opportunities and the future” The men in the room slowly all nodded and looked at each other, feeling the weight of responsibility and history. The conference lasted well into the morning of the next day, and continued for another four days. When the conference finished, the men quietly left, and walked with confident steps past the ruins of the Soviet Union which could be seen everywhere, leaving the detritus of a failed state and ideology in their wake without a second glance. Moscow 2015 “The fools … 20 years of warnings and talk and showing them our military might. The west love talking about not crossing lines, and yet they seem intent on crossing them all themselves. And still they keep trying to run our country and continue with their cold war and pushing their bases closer to us, while disregarding warnings and signs that a five year old child would have registered. Well … at least they are predictable. And weak – fortunately their words and talks no longer can stop us” The man slowly shook his head and turned from the window, looking at the men sitting at the table. “We have secured our south and east. We can never ever trust the Nekulturnyi Iranians or Chinese, but at least we can trust their greed, hunger for power and the need for self-preservation of their tiny elitist ruling cadres as well as their need for technology, weapons and resources. In this they are as predictable as the West. It is regrettable and unforeseen that we have lost the Indians in the process, but there is nothing to do about that. Now then: Are we ready for the next phase…?” He lifted his glass of tea in its silver holder and took a sip while his blue eyes piercing them as he gazed across them. One by one the men nodded, the last man taking the word for them all: “Yes my President. Our long-term Maskirovka is running as planned. The west is weak, militarily especially so and almost disarmed, or rather weekly armed for battle against terrorists and bandits. They have slowly started rearming but for most of the Europeans they only make symbolic gestures. We estimate that they will not be able to disrupt us militarily and therefore not have the political willingness or courage to try when we move to the next phase. Many of the core military competences that many of their nations once held have been abolished. We estimate that it would take these nations 10 years from the time that they might try to get them back, before they could even come close to their former strength. That is to say if they try to get them back. We don’t even have to finance and support what Lenin termed the useful idiots, who helped with our goals during the cold war, as there seems to be plenty who are willing to weaken their countries without our guidance or help. Our plans expected the West to disarm to some degree while we gathered our strength. But we never expected the west to disarm to the point that they did – even the Swedes who once could field one of the strongest defenses, have basically dismantled it, by repeatedly cutting in half their forces over a number of times. Reality it seems has exceeded our hopes. Also their nations stand divided and UN paralyzed. Anything that they might try to push through UN can be blocked by either us or the Chinese. And the Chinese like us haven’t forgotten the western abuse of UN in Libya. UN, like the League of Nations was, is a toothless, powerless and weak old man, run by corrupt fools. And it is one that will be put out to pasture when the time is right. We will secure the next buffers in three to four years as planned, barring any unforeseen events. And then we are secure from the west” Good, The President thought, and turned to the window again with a sigh. “Make sure that there are no mistakes. And any unforeseen events we will handle as they might appear” He allowed himself a small smile, as he contemplated the possible futures, and the events that unfolded in Ukraine and other places. Not everything went as planned, but enough went well that the plans would not be disturbed significantly. And the process of political solidification, rearmament and strategic alliances were on track. In fact he along with the other in the leading cadre had been and still was, amazed of how well things went – they just needed to be patient for another 3 to 4 years more. And then they would break the seventh seal. The Bears Gambit.pdf

Scenario 1 background.pdf The Bears Gambit 1 ”Si vis pacem, para bellum…” Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus Operation Red Route 1 By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved DTG 171100ZSEP18 Pacifists and dreamers hoped that the fall of the iron curtain and most of the worlds remaining communist dictatorships, would usher in a new age of understanding, peace and international harmony and prosperity. This however has been proven by reality to be in fact very much not the case. Nationalism or patriotism is not dead, nor is it in any way considered a bad thing by many hundreds of millions of people. Likewise then the idea that we all live in what amounts to common solidarity and a united market, has had very serious problems with the broad masses. Reality is that many if not most modern industrialized nations stand deeply divided politically and emotionally. And that these and other divisions also run deep and firm between many nation states as well. War Never Changes, but neither does Politics. Russia have expressed rising anger and anxiety with regards to what is perceived by Russia, as aggressive and escalating European and NATO expansion into Russian spheres of influence. With rising force and clarity, Russian under the consolidated and firm leadership of President V. V. Putin, have tied this in with what the Russians consider deliberate insults and failure to aid Russia both economically and politically in the past and present. And also a clear lack of aid and understanding politically and militarily in the Russian part of the war against Terror, including Chechnya. And finally what Russia sees as an effort to keep them away from their natural and proper place as a great nation, and a Superpower. The idea that Nationalism is somehow a bad thing, falls wholly on a great many deaf ears – not least Russian. Russia has become more destabilized due to economic recession. The collapse in the Ruble in 2014 has caused an ongoing economic crisis worsened by amongst other things a fall in oil prices, international economic sanctions and worn out infrastructure. Infrastructure has historically always been a challenge in the vastness of Russia, and has not become easier. Moreover then Russia, although a great nation by any standard, still has the problem which has dogged its development for centuries, namely that it infrastructurally and economically always seems to be one step behind its competitors and potential enemies. Part of this is also the economic imbalance that Russia still exports too many raw resources and in turn imports too many fabricated goods, instead of making them in Russia. This combined with a sharp rise in nationalism and a more firm leadership, creates a volatile situation. One of the stated goals of Russian foreign policy is to see Russia take their rightful place as a superpower on the international scene again, and to actively counter perceived threats not only to Russia, but to Russian interests in general. Russian foreign policy revolves around the idea of the near abroad and the far abroad, and the near abroad, what was once called buffer states, have been slowly eroded by internal unrest and the expansion of NATO. In line with this, then Russian leadership have increasingly and with support from large parts of their populace, expressed the view, that NATO might have won the Cold War, but that they sacrificed any legitimacy by treating Russia as a third world nation, ruled by a fool (the first President of the Russian Federation). Also the West including EU and NATO is seen to be hemming Russia militarily in, by expanding NATO literally to the doorstep of Russia, despite repeated firm Russian warnings, and in general refuse to understand the Russian position. This includes non-military actions that have worsened the economic situation in Russia. Many if not most Russians are fed up being told what to think and feel by the West, and being demonized by using the same tactics on Islamic terrorists on Russian soil as the West including USA are seen using abroad. The Russian plan for survival as a state has for centuries been to bleed any invader dry, and then drawing on its resources, annihilate them. This is based in part on the idea of buffer states, geographical areas that gives Russia the means and space to do a fighting withdrawal towards their centre of power around Moskva. And if the need arises, then have the option to fall back behind the Urals from where they would stage massive counterattacks. Russia has over the last 30 years seen many if not most of their buffer areas disappear, and what is worse that these despite Russian warnings have allied with real or perceived enemies. In line with this they have sought to counteract what they perceive as a veiled but direct attack on Russian sovereignty, first in Georgia then in Ukraine/Crimea and Syria. And now in the three Baltic states. Russia has thus sought a firmer and more belligerent line politically, both domestically and internationally. This includes covert support to parties and groups in line with Russia national interests, including pacifist groups, newspapers and parties in Europe. Russia has also given covert opposition to those who is perceived to be opposing Russia internationally and internally. And overtly they have politically underlined this with de facto alliances with Syria and thus Iran, as well as China. Russian military forces in the Kaliningrad Area alone are unofficially estimated to be in excess of 250.000 military personnel, with in excess of 250.000 in the areas surrounding the Baltic States on top of that. Actual battle-ready Russian military force in the region is estimated to be at least in excess of 160.000 in varying degrees of training and readiness. This is not counting the VDV or Russian Airborne Troops, Naval Infantry and Russian Special Operation Forces, which adds at least another 15.000 in this theatre alone. On top of this, then ever closer ties between Russia and Byelorussia de facto means that Byelorussian military personnel can and will be added to this number if needed. This means in excess of at least another 25.000 military personnel, just in the ground forces alone, that train with Russia, including in the Zapad yearly military exercises. Western military experts made the claim after 1992, that it would take Russia at least 10 years of rearmament to pose a threat to Western Europe. From its lowest point in 1998, then the military budget in Russia has risen, passing the budget level of 1992 in 2008, with inflation-adjusted funds. In 2008 Russia made sweeping military reforms, and have since spent vast sums to upgrade their forces. Thus the ten years for Russia are now spent … What western politicians and civil servants for years have chosen to ignore, in their eagerness to use up all of the so-called “Peace Dividend”, is that the same applies to the West. Many European countries, in an effort to cut military costs, have changed and reduced their armies into ever smaller COIN and Anti-insurgents units and structures, with a very limited capability to fight an actual conventional war. Capabilities such as Submarines, Anti-air defences, Logistics and Artillery takes at least 10 years to build up again when they have been scrapped, as they require not only the hardware, but also specialists, experts and training to function, as well as doctrine to integrate them into the battle. But it looks like the West and NATO might not have 10 years: Ethnic Russian people in the Baltic States have long claimed unfavourable and racist treatment in the three Baltic States, and the tensions have lately become violent. Many people in the Baltic States feel that they owe the Ethnic Russians absolutely nothing, as the Ethnic Russians are perceived by these people as being unwelcome remnants and infiltrators of an oppressive state who twice conquered and then militarily occupied the once free and democratic Baltic States for decades after WW2. The Baltic States have sought for affirmation of defence obligations from both EU and NATO. Europe internally and USA stand divided on the issue, and specifically the scope and means of affirming the military solidarity. Thus the Baltic States feel isolated and vulnerable, a fact not lost on Russia. A little over a month ago the situation escalated, as insurgents and terrorists have started fighting for what they claim is “A Free and Equal Lithuania”, while at the same time Lithuanian Internet infrastructure was attacked with different but coordinated attacks. This includes electronic attacks on key logistical and electrical nodes. Also more peripheral sites that have a military connection have been targeted by Chinese and Russian based hackers and infiltrators, including www.Steelbeasts.com and www.kanium.eu. The Russian SVR is suspected of being behind some if not most of these attacks, while the Russian GRU is suspected of training, funding and supporting the insurgents as well as deploying GRU Spetznas to support, augment and help the insurgents. The other two Baltic nations are also experiencing unrest, disturbances and acts of criminality; similar to what is happening in Lithuania, but on a much lower scale. It seems that the actions in Lithuania are coordinated, supported and for lack of better words, has a game plan. Initially then parts of the Nordic Battlegroup and UK Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) was put on alert and deployed to Lithuania. Terrorist acts are still being committed in Lithuania, with unclear perpetrators. But all signs still point to Russian support and involvement, directly and indirectly. The NATO and EU have discreetly and slowly been raising their military alert levels and readiness, but are hemmed in by a wish of not wanting to escalate the situation, as well as disagreements on a unified contingency plan as well as direction. Thus so far it has mostly been a matter of holding more military exercises, making political statements and seeking political solutions both overtly as well as covertly. The discreet talks with Russia have so far yielded little if any results. Consequently then the European nations in general, and the Baltic and Eastern European States in particular, as well as NATO are re-evaluating and assessing their military options and reserves. Unfortunately many of them are finding that discreet orders of ammunition and ordnance are hard pressed to be met – at least in full, as most national arms producers firstly cannot ramp up production significantly in the short run, and secondly that the producers are being pressured to supply the nations in which the few remaining manufacturing facilities are situated first. But the wheels are slowly beginning to turn faster. The Baltic States, Finland and the Eastern European nations are recalling and reactivating reservists. Lithuania in the meantime, struggling to survive as a State has used any and all means at their disposal to stop the insurgency and terrorism. Russia claiming that Lithuania have lost all legitimacy and control, and seeking to safeguard Ethnic Russian people, has late last week massed troops at the borders to Lithuania from Byelorussia, direction Vilnius. Lithuania is now in an undeclared and limited scale conflict with insurgents and what is by Lithuania claimed as Russian Special Operation Forces, Spetznas. NATO is at highest peacetime readiness, with weekly meetings between the defence ministers. The EU military structure has added little except more confusion and discord to the situation, and stands even less prepared – De facto being what amounts to a paper tiger, who primary function seems to be to stand in the way of NATO. TF-32, part of the JEF have been tasked with providing, escort and security for a Military Convoy moving from Marijampolé south to Šalčininkai, close to the Russian border. The convoy contains supplies and ammunition for Lithuanian Defence personnel and police that have fought for days trying to keep the area clear of insurgents. This is a distance of around 25 Km. SITUATION The military situation in the AO remains tense, with Insurgents making increasingly bold and well-planned attacks on both military and civilian targets. The majority of the insurgents seem to have at least some military training and are well-equipped with light weapons, and has proven to be well-coordinated. Recently there has been an influx of Russian made ATGMs and MANPADs, as well as what seems to be very well trained insurgents. There is widespread belief that many of these are in fact Russian SOF soldiers, and probably GRU Spetznas – what was called “Little Green Men” in Ukraine and Crimea. Also IED´s have been found and disarmed, but sadly some were only discovered when they detonated. So far no NATO (apart from the Baltic States), JEF or Nordic Battlegroup soldiers have been lost or injured. A fact that Command fears can change soon. A convoy is to depart from Marijampolé for Šalčininkai, with military supplies soon. The convoy is mission-critical to the forces holding and stabilizing the area around Šalčininkai and north towards Vilnius, which remains one of the few areas in southern Lithuania, not controlled or infested by insurgents. As neither NATO, the Baltic States nor the Scandinavian countries are at war at this time, then as little force as possible is to be used in executing the mission. The goal is to deliver the convoy safely from FOB ATHENA to Government Stores in Šalčininkai, via E85 in order to ensure re-supply of Lithuanian security forces in Šalčininkai. Civilians in Area of Operations are mostly staying indoors, or try to flee the city North. OWN forces are to displace showing all needed and prudent safety measures. Rules of Engagement NOTHING IN THESE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO TAKE APPROPIATE ACTION TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT. A. You have the right to use force to defend yourself against attacks or clear threats of attack. B. Hostile fire may be returned effectively and promptly to stop a hostile act. C. If OWN forces or those under their protection are attacked, then minimum force should be used under the circumstances and proportional to the threat. D. We are NOT at war AND in an allied nation, uncalled for destruction of civilian property will NOT be accepted.