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1973 war IDF damaged tank survey

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"The maintenance on the southern front during the Yom Kippur war" (Hebrew) paper, written by an IDF ordnance officer for command and staff course in 1990, is available on the IDF ordnance corps association website. Part 9 of it includes details from the damaged tanks survey the IDF had carried out after the war, on pages 293-304.

 

According to the paper, 214 damaged tanks were examined: 114 Shot Cal, 51 Shot Meteor, 35 Magach 3, 17 Magach 6. These numbers add up to 217. No Shermans or Tirans mentioned.

Expect for 20 (Magach) tanks examined on field, near the Chinese Farm, all the rest were examined in an ordnance depot in central Israel. 110 were from the Syrian front (66 Shot Cal, 44 Shot Meteor), 74 from the Egyptian front (51 Magach, 22 Shot Cal, 1 Shot Meteor), for 26 there was no record where were they evacuated from (Shot Cal tanks served on both fronts). Here the numbers add up to 210.

 

Number of hits per tank: 75% were hit once or twice. 25% took 3 hits or more. 1.9 hits average per tank. 2 tanks took as many as 7 hits. On the Syrian front: 35% were hit once, 39% twice, 2.1 hits average per tank. Egyptian front: 54% once, 26% twice, 1.8 hits average per tank.

Hit area: 35% turret front (30 degrees), 18% turret sides, 11% hull front, 36% hull sides. In another place, the report claims that 71% (=35%+36%) of the hits were in the turret, 29% (=18%+11%) in the hull. That's probably a mistake.

 

Hitting munition type:

Egyptian front: 16% RPG, 26% Sagger, 3% tank-fired HEAT, 9% other HEAT, 23% 100 mm AP, 23% other.

Syrian front: 7% RPG, 3% Sagger, 5% tank-fired HEAT, 6% other HEAT, 29% 100 mm AP, 19% 115 mm AP, 31% other.

HEAT munitions had the highest penetration rate, 86%. No significant difference between turret and hull penetration rates.

 

Total loss: 20% on the Egyptian front, 9% on the Syrian front.

Common damage to Shot tanks: 33% manual gun elevation mechanism, 28% TC's copula, 26% gun barrel, 24% radio, 24% gun mantlet dust cover, 22% manual turret traverse mechanism.

Common damage to Magach tanks: 37% gun barrel, 34% TC's copula,  23% radio, 17% TC's elevation and traverse mechanism, 17% gun mantlet dust cover, 15% loader's hatch.

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That is interesting how many gun barrel hits.  There has been debate on various gaming websites that gun barrel hits are over-modeled...maybe not.

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If the underlying model of ammunition dispersion is solid (a simple circular Gaussian distribution is good enough; use an elliptic normal distribution if you want the gold-plated version), and if the assumption is that the aiming point is at center of visible mass (which aligns with doctrine; go for a normal-distributed deviation from the aim point for more gold plating), the number of gun hits in a simulation follows from that. You don't need to invent special rules how often this happens, you just let it happen.

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On 7/27/2017 at 2:50 AM, thewood said:

That is interesting how many gun barrel hits.  There has been debate on various gaming websites that gun barrel hits are over-modeled...maybe not.

 

 

0:10 to 1:15: replacement of a Shot Cal's gun barrel, which was hit by AP the previous evening.

Footage taken on October 21st 1973, showing AFVs being repaired by an ordnance company around "Tzach" crossroad beyond the Suez canal. Several more pictures appear along this PDF, which tells the company's war story. The Shot Cal with its damaged gun appears on page 50.

Edited by Iarmor

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Very interessting footage. Solid hit on the gun :-P

How long till the tank was back in the fight?

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On 27.7.2017 at 8:25 AM, Ssnake said:

If the underlying model of ammunition dispersion is solid (a simple circular Gaussian distribution is good enough; use an elliptic normal distribution if you want the gold-plated version), and if the assumption is that the aiming point is at center of visible mass (which aligns with doctrine; go for a normal-distributed deviation from the aim point for more gold plating), the number of gun hits in a simulation follows from that. You don't need to invent special rules how often this happens, you just let it happen.

Ssnake, can you comment on how the SB terrain model influences hit areas on a tank?

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Well, obviously a low resolution terrain database that still looks natural cannot offer "micro cover" - small but sharp variations in the terrain that are sufficient to mask a combat vehicle at least partially, or in full. Real life is full of these micro cover elements; it starts with walls and fences in large numbers in urban areas, there's irrigation and drainage ditches, and most prominently, most major roads will have a significant lengths in the form of ramps to smoothen elevations, or when leading up to overpasses - or they cut into slopes when running parallel to mountain slopes.

 

All these elements require a higher resolution than a 30m grid, which is still the standard for most of the maps in SB Pro PE, even if the Steel Beasts mesh width offers an almost six times higher resolution (12.5m grid). The lack of micro cover will therefore tend to expose vehicles to each other at longer ranges, and for longer durations. This in turn leads to longer engagement ranges than is often observed in real-life training, and the impact locations are almost evenly distributed between hull and turret. You can easily observe that when groing through your own saved AAR files, or, more coarsely but with a probably much broader base of samples, check out the HTML formatted tabulated mission reports that Steel Beasts generates for every. single. scenario that you have every played since first installation. You can open these tables with pretty much any contemporary spreadsheet program. There, above the event list, you can see both the distance for every shot taken, and a coarse description of the hit location. If you would do a quantitative statistical analysis you could see what the average engagement range in all your scenarios was (you could even filter it by weapon system/ammunition type to sort 120mm gun rounds from TOW missiles and 25mm autocannon fire), and you will probably find a distribution of 60% turret hits to 40% hull impacts.

 

 

My prediction for future games with the high resolution terrain engine, where the scenario played is based on a high resolution terrain (like LIDAR scan), the balance will shift from 60:40 to 95:5, at least as far as human vs human engagements are concerned. This is at least what the first tests suggested that were reported during the Steel Beasts Conference this year, and it seems to have been confirmed in other, independent tests since then. I think it's safe to say that the introduction of high res terrain databases will have a profound impact on the way how Steel Beasts will be played, and experienced.

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19 hours ago, Grenny said:

Very interessting footage. Solid hit on the gun :-P

How long till the tank was back in the fight?

 

The tank is said to be ready in 1 hour. At first they cannibalized an intact gun barrel from another damaged tank, but then a truck arrived with a new spare barrel, so now they assemble the new spare barrel. The air cleaner is also being replaced, after being damaged by mortar fire.

 

1:20 to 1:45: halftrack's engine replacement, after the water pump broke. The halftrack is said to be ready in 2 hours.

 

1:45 to 2:25: Shot Cal engine and air cleaner replacement, after a direct hit by 120 mm mortar round. This tank is said to be ready by tomorrow morning.

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47 minutes ago, Iarmor said:

 

The tank is said to be ready in 1 hour. At first they cannibalized an intact gun barrel from another damaged tank, but then a truck arrived with a new spare barrel, so now they assemble the new spare barrel. The air cleaner is also being replaced, after being damaged by mortar fire.

 

1:20 to 1:45: halftrack's engine replacement, after the water pump broke. The halftrack is said to be ready in 2 hours.

 

1:45 to 2:25: Shot Cal engine and air cleaner replacement, after a direct hit by 120 mm mortar round. This tank is said to be ready by tomorrow morning.

Well, just in case anyone doubted this... Good CSS units a key to stay in combat. B|

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But doesn't the IDF study show that in that war, it was 60/40 turret/hull (or at worst, 70/30)?  Am I comparing apples to oranges?

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Of course the turret to hull hit ratio is highly dependent on engagement ranges, terrain, and crew proficiency levels. Also, in some cases (though not in 1973) on ammunition overmatch (if you can shoot through a berm and still kill the target, well...)

 

So, there's no universal ratio that will apply to every engagement. A "featureless desert" would be well represented by a 30m grid model, a "non-desert" environment "with features" would surely shift the impact location more towards the turret, as there are more opportunities to use terrain elements to mask a vehicle, possibly even on the move. To which extent the Sinai theater and the Golan heights could be characterized as "featureless deserts" I don't know; I have never been there.

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I understand there is no exact formula and there are many variables, but a swing from 60/40 to 95/5 just seemed a little extreme.  I also understand statistical relevance is in play.  Just seemed a pretty big difference.

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Well, I suppose that with a broader sample the swing will be less extreme. Also, it's always the question if you look at player vs player engagements how much each player emphasizes terrain masking in his play style, how many different players are involved, or what the tactical level of your exercise is - platoon vs battalion scale.

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i would imagine  were it possible to get the entire population on earth to participate and run the experiment over and over enough times you could generate a statistical model of human behavior that would follow predictable patterns- which would confirm your hit location distribution- perhaps a bell curve say. even accounting for individual play styles would eventually at some point average out as players gain more experience and learn through trial and error, learning from and emulating more experienced players- given an infinite amount of time and reruns of the simulation, you'd get predictable behavior from the point of view of a statistical model.

 

actuarial science is interesting in this regard- for all the belief that some people may have that human behavior is so complex as to be unpredictable or can't be modeled reliably, people make a living doing that in many disciplines, from advertisers to insurance companies. if there is a finite range of behavior or if there are only so many 'rational' moves available in a situation, eventually, most players in the system will on average show predictable responses.

Edited by Captain_Colossus

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I work for a company that does focus groups and market research.  None of it is truly predictable.  Its about informed risk.

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most things are predictable in the sense that you can make predictions- again, it doesn't mean your predictions are 100 percent accurate but for the purposes of making decisions that are more reliable than not.

 

i'll give you an example of stop lights. most people will follow the rules of traffic most of the time- all the individual driving behaviors, discrepancies in skill, confidence and so on still creates a reliable model for behavior. of course, you will still get accidents, people violating the rules and so on- however, it is more reliable to rely on the gathered data than not and to say it's all random.

 

when something looks 'random', it may be it just that you don't have enough data yet. people's behavior wouldn't look more 'random' to you if you were famous. let's however say you were a very attractive model or movie star or celebrity- other people's behavior wouldn't look so random, their behavior towards you would be a lot more predictable. turning heads, they would be looking at you, approaching you, mobbing you, and so on. but if you're not a famous celebrity, your perspective wouldn't have this kind of insight and behavior wouldn't be as predictable (which is why celebrities often burn out on the fame- at first it's great, then after awhile they can't get privacy and go into public incognito).

Edited by Captain_Colossus

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by the way, what's very interesting is the 80/20 rule, which has been applied to unrelated topics from dating match selections to crop yields

 

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/80-20-rule.asp

 

One of the biggest hurdles to overcome is the human ego- it doesn't like to accept that we are like all part of a machine collectively, our wills aren't so independent as we would like to idealize ourselves as human beings. it's uncomfortable, so people resist it, not wanting to be reduced to math or statistics. but if you drop your ego, things appear differently and more clearly.

Edited by Captain_Colossus

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David Kahnemann's research demonstrates that our brain has two modes, or two systems, where System 1 is extremely fast and efficient but works with a lot of rules of thumb and "making up shit" to let us believe in a consistent world model. Like, recognizing faces, or driving a car, which is somewhat difficult as a beginner (because it REALLY is a very complex task) until it becomes second nature. You no longer think "which gear should I be using now?", you just hear it and act accordingly (unless you are stressed out, which is when you start making mistakes). System 1 is our brain on automatic, resulting in very predictable behavior.

System 2 is analytical thinking. This is what you need to solve equations without the use of a computer, to read (and understand) a legal or an academic paper, to play chess (with the exception of opening moves and, for a very experienced player, known constellations/recognized patterns). System 2 can overrule System 1. You CAN decide to take a different way to work, you CAN decide to stop smoking cigarettes or to stop eating bacon - but System 2 is lazy (it requires a lot more effort to activate), so usually you don't. Because it's easier. Also, System 2 is much slower. Whenever complex decisions need to be made quickly, System 2 yields to System 1. In combat terms, a commander at the headquarters will usually (hopefully) use his System 2. When you have fixed bayonets and storm an enemy position, it's all System 1, or you die. This is why armies insist on drill as a training technique. At the end of the day, it is a kind of self-programming of the human brain (like learning to ride a bicycle). You want certain things to run on automatic. In martial arts you can't analyze the attack of your opponent when you need to react at reflex speed.

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On 7/29/2017 at 5:16 PM, thewood said:

But doesn't the IDF study show that in that war, it was 60/40 turret/hull (or at worst, 70/30)?  Am I comparing apples to oranges?

 

Note that 23% of the hitting munitions on the Egyptian front and 31% on the Syrian front were classified as "other", which presumably stands for artillery, airstrikes, etc.

 

As the examined tanks were the heavily-damaged ones evacuated to the rear, I wonder if lightly-damaged tanks and tanks captured by the Egyptians might have changed the statistics a bit.

For example, many M48s that managed to arrive to their firing ramps near the canal strongholds, were then hit (in the turret most probably) by Saggers fired from the western bank and ended up in Egyptian hands.

 

On 7/30/2017 at 0:23 AM, Ssnake said:

To which extent the Sinai theater and the Golan heights could be characterized as "featureless deserts" I don't know; I have never been there.

 

Unlike the Golan Heights, The Egyptian theater can indeed be largely described as an open desert for most 1967 & 1973 battles, with the exceptions of urban areas and the agricultural area south of Ismailia.

 

israeli-war-israeli-tanks-manoeuvre-on-e

 

20(14).jpg

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Tank fired HEAT? I was of the impression that HEAT was not available for the Arab tankers due to its expense. I guess this means that they either had a few rounds of it in the load out, or only better trained crews had it, or the IM were mistaken and the damage was caused by Saggers. Any information if the Israelis captured main gun HEAT rounds from the Egyptians and Syrians and what rounds they may have been?

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On 8/3/2017 at 5:43 AM, TankHunter said:

Tank fired HEAT? I was of the impression that HEAT was not available for the Arab tankers due to its expense. I guess this means that they either had a few rounds of it in the load out, or only better trained crews had it, or the IM were mistaken and the damage was caused by Saggers. Any information if the Israelis captured main gun HEAT rounds from the Egyptians and Syrians and what rounds they may have been?

 

Lack of 100 mm HEAT and APDS was true for 1967. It was one of the reasons why the IDF had decided to replace the 100 mm gun with 105 mm. Another reason was that Egyptian commandos infiltrated Sinai and blew up a war booty ammunition dump the IDF had piled up near Qantara in July 1967, shortly after the war.

 

By 1973 the Arab armies were supplied with 100 mm HEAT, APDS, 115 mm HEAT and APFSDS. AFAIK only a handful of 100 mm HEAT were available per tank, which corresponds to 3-5% of the reported hits.

The IDF retained the 115 mm until the Tiran 6 ended its service in 1992. The new captured T-54/55s were fitted with 105 mm just like the 1967 examples, but 100 mm guns were still in use as late as 1975:

 

israeli-soldiers-firing-captured-sovietm

Edited by Iarmor

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On 8/3/2017 at 5:43 AM, TankHunter said:

Any information if the Israelis captured main gun HEAT rounds from the Egyptians and Syrians and what rounds they may have been?

 

In this picture gallery taken in a 1973 war booty lot, 100 mm rounds are seen being unloaded from a SU-100:

 

BM-8 HVAPDS and OF-412 HE-Frag

https://ids.lib.harvard.edu/ids/view/401545830?width=600&height=374&html=y

https://ids.lib.harvard.edu/ids/view/401545842?width=600&height=375&html=y

 

OF-412 HE-Frag

https://ids.lib.harvard.edu/ids/view/401545854?width=600&height=374&html=y

https://ids.lib.harvard.edu/ids/view/401545860?width=600&height=382&html=y

 

3BK-5M HEAT

https://ids.lib.harvard.edu/ids/view/401545941?width=600&height=364&html=y

https://ids.lib.harvard.edu/ids/view/401545798?width=600&height=376&html=y

 

High resolution pictures are available in the gallery link. Please correct me if I'm wrong with the round ID.

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7 hours ago, Iarmor said:

 

You sir are a lovely individual. Thanks for the links and info!

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ASSESSMENT OF THE WEAPONS AND TACTICS USED IN THE OCTOBER 1973 MIDDLE EAST WAR

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/LOC-HAK-480-3-1-4.pdf

 

Armor and anti-armor weapons are discussed on pages 41-56. An examination of 119 heavily damaged Israeli tanks and 435 captured Arab tanks, by US military assessment team sent to Israel in 1974, is discussed on page 47. 

Edited by Iarmor

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