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What If: Russia invades Lithuania?


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Reading the news last year (?) there has been more and more political aggression between Russia and Lithuania, and that made me curious.

Might be a nice setup for a "war" in SB as Lithuania is a NATO member and at the same time has a long and good connection with Sweden so if a situation arise there could be allot of different country's forces in Lithuania when/if Russia invades.

The reason for Russian invasion could be many as hell, but I wont bother with the political bit there, I'm just thinking strategic now.

IF russia wanted to go in and "peacefy" Lithuania, where would they go and what terrain would be key terrain to occupy?

Vilnius seems to be an obvious target as its the capital, and then Road A16 to Kaliningrad.

Maybe a charge towards Vilnius and Kaunas to cut the southern part of and then "liberate" the southern parts (who seems to keep the majority of citizens in Lithaunia).

The terrain seems nice and open farmland mixed with forests criss-crossed with smaller lakes. Could make for interesting fight with russian "liberation" forces

Thoughts?

/KT

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Reading the news last year (?) there has been more and more political aggression between Russia and Lithuania, and that made me curious.

Might be a nice setup for a "war" in SB as Lithuania is a NATO member and at the same time has a long and good connection with Sweden so if a situation arise there could be allot of different country's forces in Lithuania when/if Russia invades.

The reason for Russian invasion could be many as hell, but I wont bother with the political bit there, I'm just thinking strategic now.

IF russia wanted to go in and "peacefy" Lithuania, where would they go and what terrain would be key terrain to occupy?

Vilnius seems to be an obvious target as its the capital, and then Road A16 to Kaliningrad.

Maybe a charge towards Vilnius and Kaunas to cut the southern part of and then "liberate" the southern parts (who seems to keep the majority of citizens in Lithaunia).

The terrain seems nice and open farmland mixed with forests criss-crossed with smaller lakes. Could make for interesting fight with russian "liberation" forces

Thoughts?

/KT

Well... Russians can not invade a single baltic country- they need to all 3 countries to gain success; and in fact they need some kind of guarantee of non-intervention from "old" EU members and US.

IMHO there are 2 probable scenarios:

1) Long-term occupation:

From operational point of view main axes of advance will probably reflect WWII ops- terrain is very restrictive for mechanized forces.

If baltic countries will be caught unprepared and w/o western support- everything will be ended in a couple of weeks, but russian side will face insurgency and this "bonfire" can only be subdued by really big cash :)

Such "project" is just not profitable for Russia in economical and political terms.

2) Quick decisive "888-style" operation to degrade defensive capabilities of baltic states and to accomplish certain foreign and internal policy goals. EU, US or nordic countries probably will not have time or political resoluteness to react.

See conduct and outcome of russo-georgian war as an illustration of such scenario

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This is why I wrote "The reason for Russian invasion could be many as hell, but I wont bother with the political bit there, I'm just thinking strategic now." :)

I pretty much looking for a "how would they take Lithuania if shit hits the fan and the Generals are ordered to do it" and leave the politic background behind it.

The background can be left out in SB scenario or made semi-true or totally fictive :)

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Ok. If we will consider current force setups it will be a some kind of delaying action conducted by light infantry and motorized infantry units(without heavy armor or air support) against heavy mechanized force. So you need add a components from some friendly nation for a balance :)

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Yepp thats kind of the plan that Im thinking. Im thinking of making my first operation based on this (once Im done with my current 2 scenarios that is)

Pretty much a mixup of western equiptment fighting a "limited war" in lithuania. Havent fixed the story yet, the idea just popped up when I was reading the news today.

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If you are going to include logistics in this thought experiment, I don't quite see it lasting too long. The Russians would be pretty much forced to rely on whatever supplies survive allied air strikes in Kaliningrad. I couldn't foresee resupply. :)

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If you are going to include logistics in this thought experiment, I don't quite see it lasting too long. The Russians would be pretty much forced to rely on whatever supplies survive allied air strikes in Kaliningrad. I couldn't foresee resupply. :)

There is Belorussia off-map ;)

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...The Russians would be pretty much forced to rely on whatever supplies survive allied air strikes in Kaliningrad. I couldn't foresee resupply. :)

Your belief that NATO would bomb the Russian (non contiguous) mainland as part of some NATO treaty induced obligatory defense of Lithuania is optimistic IMHO, Reagan and Thatcher are gone. Besides they would resupply and probably also invade through Belarus. They are pretty chummy and according the center of knowledge in the known universe, Wikipedia, "The union of Russia and Belarus, a supranational confederation, was established in a 1996–99 series of treaties that called for monetary union, equal rights, single citizenship, and a common foreign and defense policy." (emphasis mine).

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