MH17

[Koen]

Sincere condolences to especially the Dutch members of this site,

but also to other nationalities that were involved in this tragedy.

I do hope that no-one of your families is among the victims.

Koen

[Gibsonm]

Yes terrible news, no matter what caused it.

I am further stunned by some journos allegedly "of note" blurting out names of victims from such dubious sources as "Twitter".

I can just imagine next of kin finding out that way before they are officially informed. Potentially even worse if the "Tweet" is wrong and the person is in fact fine.

[Raploc]

We've lost a colleague of ours on this flight. We're 99% sure but are waiting for the official passenger list. He was together with his wife and only child.

[Yskonyn]

We are awaiting confirmation about co-workers of my wife being on board and possibly collegues of my own...

Condolences to everyone who is affected by this tragedy wherever they may call home.

[Lt DeFault]

Such a tragedy. My thoughts and prayers are with you and all of those affected.

[Guest Killjoy]

Looks like this is along the same lines as the Iran Air Flight 655 incident.

Mistaken Identity.

Tragic.

[Captain_Colossus]

Just like a lot of mistaken IDs or cases of fratricide, all three of them are tragic accidents in the sense that no one thought they were positively shooting at civilian aircraft, in the case of the Korean airliner as I recall, the events converged unfortunately in such a coincidental way that the Soviets thought they were tracking a surveillance aircraft that was in the area earlier, the US had thought the Iranian plane was an attack aircraft on an attack run, and likely the case here is that the pro separatist rebels thought they were shooting at a military transport (apparently bragging that they had shot one down before realizing the mistake). A lot of friendly fire incidents in ODS and OIF follow a kind of similar pattern in that there was evidence that friendlies were being targeted, but for one reason or another, the fog of war has its own way.

In all cases, at worst, they might have had some evidence that they had misidentified the targets but were being very aggressive and more likely to believe the evidence which confirmed military targets rather than not, but likely at no point did someone say, "Civilian aircraft positive. Shoot it. Get their goats." With the Korean and Iranian airliners, the case was more the Soviets and the US had some evidence they were mistaken but instead chose the evidence which confirmed their fears.

What is happening however, mistake or not, in all three cases it's a propaganda disaster and everyone covers their own ass.

Also, Malaysia Airlines is going to receive a shellacking in civil suits for operating flights into a conflict zone that other operators know to avoid. It seems like common sense. After the other incident of the disappearing plane, their shareholders might be discussing what sort of future this company has. They are about to be short of some cash.

[lavictoireestlavie]

RIP

[Guest Killjoy]

I can sort of understand Iran Air 655, but this and KAL 007 are a bit more than an "accident".

You don't shoot down aircraft at 30,000' with a shoulder launched SA-7.

If it really was a SA-11/SA-17 then these don't fall off the back of a truck in some arms bazaar and come with a nifty radar that should easily tell the difference between a civilian airliner and a military aircraft.

Hopefully the guys who allegedly fired the missile will hand over the "black boxes" but I suspect not.

Our thoughts are with the next of kin of the almost 300 souls lost.

Apparently the Ukrainian Army lost a Buk missile system in a Rebel Raid a few weeks prior, but neglected to tell anyone about it. Probably the reason they've been able to shoot down the Ukrainian Transport Aircraft.

The Problem with the Buk is that it doesn't have an IFF reader, which means when an Aircraft shows up on Radar, it just shows up as "Plane, 30,000 feet, airspeed 500".

Ukrainian Authorities released what appears to be intercepted Telephone calls from the Battery commander and his handler, expressing their shock of finding civilian markings.. But that's not been verified, and if indeed they intercepted it, they knew where it was, and if they knew where it was, why didn't they attempt to destroy it?

And in relation to the comment about the Media blurting out names, I completely agree. They're making the whole situation worse than it already is with headlines like "Putin's Victims" and "Red Menace claims 300 innocent lives".

I know that's all "Ifs and Buts" and hind sight and all that, but like you said, terrible incident.

[Viper-3]

Even if the BUK had IFF it more than likely wouldn't share the same Crypto as the Malaysian passenger plane and therefore returned an "Unknown" response. Would have still resulted the same I'm guessing.

Some media are stating a shoulder fired missile could have been used. This would bring to mind something simliar to Stinger or SA-7. We are pretty stingy with selling or missing Stinger RMP weapon or ready rounds. Basic stinger is possible but that would have been a tough shot even for a seasoned gunner. SA-7 would have been a tough shot as well considering the cloud cover and no after burners on a passenger plane.

Most likely vehicle mounted

[Stanny]

There has been already an explanation about the IFF feature of the Ukrainian "BUK" SAM sites. The Ukrainian "BUK" could not shoot the Boeing down because as soon as any civilian airplane enters international transit air space over the country the ATC gives him the "Friendly" designation and all air defense sites automatically get all firing systems blocked on this aircraft. Missiles simply won't launch.

So, there are two versions of who actually downed an aircraft and both lead to Russian separatists:

1) "BUK" system seized in one of the Donetsk air defense units, but Ukrainian officials say that only non-operational systems were left there, but they had a working Ukrainian IFF as well, so this version is less likely;

2) Transfer of several "BUK" systems previously seized by Russia during Crimea annexation with IFF removed, through Kerch straight to mainland Russia and then through the gap in the border into Ukraine; This version is more likely;

Videos:

1) "BUK M1" riding near the tragedy area in Snezhnoye, a little before the plane crash:

2) "BUK M1" being towed towards Russian border after the plane crash, one missile is missing on the launch rails:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mICnsgEY7wE

Seriously, Ukraine should not be blamed for this accident, this is a pure Russian fault, Ukrainians realized that terrorists possess SAM weapons being able to hit target beyond 4000 m altitudes only several days ago (on July 14th) when this An-26 delivering supplies was shot down near Russian border (altitude 6200 meters):

First version was that Russian Su-27 fired a missile across the border but now it comes clear that it was one of the same "BUK" launchers that downed B777.

My personal opinion, NATO could launch a SEAD operation along the Russian border to destroy the "denied" SAMs (which are not Russian as they always claim), there are F-16 from Spandahlem stationed now in Lask, Poland that specialize in SEAD duties, there are F-16 from Aviano there too, with the help of NATO air power this conflict will be over soon as Ukrainian army is quite capable to finish the ground war on their own. Problem is only the guided precise air strikes (Ukrainian jets cannot conduct night missions, they have no NV, no FLIR, no targeting pods etc.).

[Hedgehog]

Well these both have at best a slant range of 5,000m

Cruising altitude of civil aircraft 10,000m

Was gonna say, thats pretty bloody good for small 2m long MANPAD.

Chaps, remember that Civil and Military identification systems are very different.

Civil equipments basically shout "HERE I AM!"

(Because they don't generally expect to be shot at)

Military systems are designed not to draw attention to themselves.

(Because they do generally expect to be shot at)

The problem here is the system used was more than likely not tied into any IAD system, being "Rogue",and without the IADS to tell you what is what, a blip on a radar screen is just that.

The SA-11 doesn't (as far as i know) normally come with a secondary radar set to interrogate civilian airliner transponders, that's the job of the IADS, the SA-11 has a tracking radar, IFF interrogator (Military) and a radio link to the missile in flight, thats it.

[Stanny]

I am following the development of this conflict since the very beginning and must warn all my European colleagues, especially from Central and Eastern Europe - either NATO reacts as it did in Bosnia in 1995 or the situation is going to get much worse.

Putin's ambitions are not ending in Ukraine, but reaching such countries as Baltic States, Poland or Hungary. He wants to re-create some sort of Warsaw Pact or influence zone, and for these purposes he uses so called "denied war", when he's troops and weaponry are de facto on the ground but he denies this. What he does now is transferring all the weaponry Russia seized in Crimea through the gaps in the border, there were: up to 180 tanks T-64B and T-64BV, several dozens 2S1 self propelled artillery vehicles, BM-21 multi missile launchers, "BUK" and S-300 SAMs.

All this weaponry is quite enough for three or four Yugoslavia wars, so either NATO destroys this "denied and non-existent" hardware or it will continue to kill people.

For example, the amount of MANPADs in the area of conflict is insane, I mean each helicopter is usually fired upon by a salvo of 2 or 3 "Igla" manpads, those rebels even don't bother to use RPGs against "soft" targets like BMP or BTR - "Fagot" and "Metis" ATGMs are fired all the time.

Some videos of what is happening there, that might be interesting.

T-64B tank without reactive armor that suffered a frontal "Fagot" ATGM hit and got the turret rotation mechanism blocked, all optics and gun heat shield broken by sniper fire, RPG-26 hit the engine section:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPiigJfjPjY

"Igla-1" manpad pursues Mi-24 Hind (black trail on 0:25):

"Igla-S" attack against An-30 reconaissance plane over Slovyansk:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FNoSFrCwds

Armored convoy got ambushed:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Itu5g0V2dZI

ATGM launches at Ukrainian armored units:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2IKsovaI9U

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jE7wrNg1rY

Damaged Ukrainian T-64BV tank, again turret rotation mechanism got blocked after RPG/ATGM hit, tank commander committed suicide, blown himself with grenade to avoid capture by rebels:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEjwv7t8JA

Ukrainian artillery working:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-u1i6h7LJGM

Russian BM-21 multiple rocket launcher fires into Ukrainian territory (Russians deny this, say that this launcher is not theirs):

[Kingtiger]

tank commander committed suicide, blown himself with grenade to avoid capture by rebels:

Have there been reports of rebels killing POWs or something? (I havent heard of any?) that leads someone to rather takes his own life then go into captivity for the rest of the conflict?

/KT

[Stanny]

Have there been reports of rebels killing POWs or something?

Ukrainian POWs (Security Service operatives) interviewed by Russian TV:

Airborne troops captured by Russian Cossack mercenaries:

Ukrainian POWs interviewed after armored column ambush:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuBpDNnGqLw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Bl5st69PQ0

Most Ukrainian soldiers that kept POWs are usually being interviewed stripped in the presence of Russian media. After that all this is shown on Russian TV channels.

I would also like to add about the area where B777 was shot down. Shezhnoye - Torez area is by far the strongest terrorist stronghold in the region, as far as you know three months the Ukrainian Army was quite busy near the city of Slovyansk and during that time terrorists were dragging everything into Snezhnoye - Torez: there are ZU-23-2s on the rooftops of block apartment buildings, NSV 12.7 mm heavy machine guns, tanks, APCs, everything.

I have spoken with many locals on other forums and they told me this. Mercenaries there are from Russian spetsnaz and paratroopers and ending with Chechen fighters. Very dangerous place.

Rooftop of apartment building in this area:

[Yskonyn]

Pretty interesting links Stanny.

I also appreciate the explanation of the SA-11, Hedge.

If Russia denies to have any ties with the rebels and Ukraine sees them as such (the rebels), why don't the international research crew get any military escort at the crash site, you think?

[Grenny]

Ukrainian POWs (Security Service operatives) interviewed by Russian TV:

Airborne troops captured by Russian Cossack mercenaries:

Ukrainian POWs interviewed after armored column ambush:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuBpDNnGqLw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Bl5st69PQ0

Most Ukrainian soldiers that kept POWs are usually being interviewed stripped in the presence of Russian media. After that all this is shown on Russian TV channels.

I would also like to add about the area where B777 was shot down. Shezhnoye - Torez area is by far the strongest terrorist stronghold in the region, as far as you know three months the Ukrainian Army was quite busy near the city of Slovyansk and during that time terrorists were dragging everything into Snezhnoye - Torez: there are ZU-23-2s on the rooftops of block apartment buildings, NSV 12.7 mm heavy machine guns, tanks, APCs, everything.

I have spoken with many locals on other forums and they told me this. Mercenaries there are from Russian spetsnaz and paratroopers and ending with Chechen fighters. Very dangerous place.

Rooftop of apartment building in this area:

Ah, hearing-protection. At lest they think about elf'n'safety :-P

[Stanny]

If Russia denies to have any ties with the rebels and Ukraine sees them as such (the rebels), why don't the international research crew get any military escort at the crash site, you think?

Ukraine is in desperate need of effective air support in that area. Helicopters and attack jets can't get there because of insane amount of manpads Russians have shipped to this area, while bombing from higher altitudes isn't precise - Ukrainian Su-24s and Su-25s do not have FLIRs, targeting pods and other sophisticated hardware, they can only drop unguided bombs and fire FFARs. Pilots are also learning so to say "on the move" because army was terribly financed in the recent years.

The only military protection for Investigation Teams would be sending the regular Ukrainian mechanized - armored regiment or brigade to the crash site which will have to make it's way with a battle, I mean tanks would have to crash the rebel check points, rebel positions would be barraged with artillery fire.

So the only way Ukrainian government authorities can reach this area is battle through in a combat. NATO would help a lot if those F-16s from Aviano and Spandahlem that are now stationed in Poland do some night air raids on rebel tanks, BM-21 multiple missile launchers, rebel artillery in that area. Then the Ukrainians would go through in a several days, otherwise it would be a rather difficult operation taking into consideration that all air support Ukrainians have is 30 Su-24s (which cannot deploy guided munitions for unknown reasons) and 30 Su-25s, that all cannot work at night and should operate at high altitudes because of manpads all the time (air support is much less effective because of this).

Terrorist force that is guarding the area around the crash site is up to 1000 gunmen, several dozen T-64 tanks, BM-21 multiple missile launchers, BMP-2, towed ZPU and ZU-23-2 AA artillery. The force is quite substantial, therefore there is a problem getting there.

[Captain_Colossus]

So the only way Ukrainian government authorities can reach this area is battle through in a combat. NATO would help a lot if those F-16s from Aviano and Spandahlem that are now stationed in Poland do some night air raids on rebel tanks, BM-21 multiple missile launchers, rebel artillery in that area.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, NATO's self defense charter theoretically doesn't extend just to intervene here.

Now NATO of course has in the past contrived somewhat specious reasons to involve itself where member states weren't attacked- for example, in Libya and the bombing campaign against Yugoslavia. Regardless of whether one thinks the moral reason was there in those cases, that was not NATO's raison d'etre, and its purpose was being 'abused' in a sense. People complained about it, but that really didn't matter, the consequences didn't entail Russia directly as it would here, and you'd better be prepared for serious blowback here that you didn't have to worry about in those other conflicts.

I think it's too soon for military aid, I don't think you can help Ukraine militarily to make a difference, that is, without Putin deciding to show off with a Russian attack on Ukraine or something.

If Europe wants to do something, it does far more business with Russia than the US does, more of their economies are co-mingled and supplies Russia with much more investment and cash than the US can hurt with sanctions. So the Europeans are going to have to cut off some of Putin's money.

[Gibsonm]

Right so now that this has gone off into a political rabbit hole and well away from the initial compassionate comments, I need to go back and delete my previous posts.

Wish you people would stick to the initial spirit of the thread.

[Captain_Colossus]

Well, the discussion of what next is connected here. We've lost civilians here, and people want a resolution, and naturally that entails the next part of it. I don't think anything in particular here is ugly, but you'd have to kind of expect people talking about this with the start of this topic to begin with.

[Gibsonm]

Perhaps but its now "political" and I can't/wont be seen to be associated with that.

[Stanny]

Wish you people would stick to the initial spirit of the thread.

The initial spirit of the thread is that there is a 5000 - 10000 gunmen gang armed to the teeth with most advanced weaponry sitting in the middle of Europe and being actively supported by Russia - each night convoys go into Ukraine across the border with tanks, self-propelled artillery, multiple rocket launchers. This gang is officially denied to have any ties with Russia.

My condolences to all the people who lost lives in this nightmare (Ukraine has been going through it during the past few months), but there was no way around - Russia supplied "Buk" systems for the terrorists in order to let them engage planes flying above 4000 meters, in case of MH17 they were thinking that it is something like IL-76 transport flying to parachute drop supplies for the ground troops. They were firing at everything they could reach during the last few months (Ukraine lost 13 fixed wing and rotor aircraft).

Ukrainians are experiencing such nightmare every week, for example recently Ukrainian military camp was barraged by BM-21 "Grad" multiple rocket launcher, up to 50 people were blown to pieces, judge yourself is it a war or terrorism of grand scale, some pictures:

And this is the wreck of IL-76 destroyed by manpad during landing some time ago (50 paratroopers died and the crew):

Another picture from the same region. Terrorist is posing in front of the destroyed BTR commenting in his social network page that there are "10 Ukrainians burning inside, legs can be seen":

This is what Ukraine is facing currently. These people don't understand negotiations, they understand only precise and very deadly military power.

[Hedgehog]

Pretty interesting links Stanny.

I also appreciate the explanation of the SA-11, Hedge.

If Russia denies to have any ties with the rebels and Ukraine sees them as such (the rebels), why don't the international research crew get any military escort at the crash site, you think?

Well I'm estimating what is on the system from what I have gathered from the older systems. Google a piece of software called SAMSim.

[Gibsonm]

Original post:

Sincere condolences to especially the Dutch members of this site,

but also to other nationalities that were involved in this tragedy.

I do hope that no-one of your families is among the victims.

Koen

How does that in any way link with:

The initial spirit of the thread is that there is a 5000 - 10000 gunmen gang armed to the teeth with most advanced weaponry sitting in the middle of Europe and being actively supported by Russia - each night convoys go into Ukraine across the border with tanks, self-propelled artillery, multiple rocket launchers.

I suspect they aren't in "the middle of Europe" or the Czechs, Austrians, Germans and Poles might have something to say.

There is a world of difference between a bunch of non combatants in a civilian airliner being hit and the rest of your post that relates to and photographs military targets being hit by BM-21 or a military aircraft being shot down by a MANPAD.

But of course this rebuttal will be futile.

Not saying you don't have a case, just that it shouldn't be perpetuated here - create your own thread and post whatever you want.