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DemolitionMan
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I can only see a hole that I would attribute to "a" subcaliber kinetic energy round. I wouldn't dare to call caliber and sub type. It does, however, not look like a 100mm full caliber hole to me. I've heard that steel sabots create wider holes than late tungsten or dU designs, so maybe that's what we're looking at.

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you have me beat- i seemed to remember what was claimed to be 100 mm perforations on a t-54 range target at a tank museum and i would not have ruled that out based on the camera angle and the text overlay over the whole when the camera zooms in for a closer view. i went purely on memory of what that looked like

Edited by Captain_Colossus
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A short Israeli Armored Corps promotional documentary film from 1971:

 

https://jfc.org.il/en/news_journal/51230-2/113891-2/

 

0:00-1:21: Armor School graduation ceremony. M48s and Centurions shoulder to shoulder.

1:21-6:39: Centurions on desert training. Rare M48 AVLB use (the IDF had just one of these) on 4:28-5:29.

6:48-7:38: Armor School training.

7:38-8:07: Centurions in an ordnance depot.

8:07-9:01: Centurions on gunnery range.

9:02-12:14: Desert training again, with live fire. An ordnance team (on a crane-mounting halftrack) fixes a Centurion track on 9:58-10:17.

12:14-12:43: Night firing.

12:53-13:04: M48s patrol the eastern bank of the Suez canal.

13:06-14:06: Centurions in different locations, including Mount Hermon from 13:49 and on.

 

Live enemy is portrayed by Tiran-4 tanks (note the Israeli-modified fenders on 9:21), painted in outdated Egyptian colors. Target practice is carried-out on 1967 war booty AFVs: T-54/55, IS-3, SU-100, ZSU-57x2, T-34/85.

 

Edited by Iarmor
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where it gets interesting is the fact that if poland is going to be a base for supply, then support trains must travel hundreds of miles to follow the armor in ukraine- which means vulnerable to russian interdiction. i wonder how this is being planned when large formations are already at risk for artillery or drone or air attack as it is right now. this is not desert storm where the coalition controlled the airspace and iraqi artillery was generally removed from the equation, assuming a few to several hours of maintenance and resupply necessary at a minimum to for every one hour of action, this seems like a challenging requirement for operating these tanks. they can make comparisons as they seem to like doing, but the problem is that it certainly does not have to play out like that if the russians played the game not like that. furthermore what i've heard from some of the americans fighting in the foreign units there is that there a fair amount of corruption in the ukrainian military where some units will keep supplies meant for other units, it can be rather undisciplined and up to the discretion of local commanders to decide if they want to be generous- in other words it's not as organized, disciplined and regulated like the us military would be

Edited by Captain_Colossus
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These aren’t aircraft.  They will probably get many hours of use before “hours of maintenance” are needed.  Checking fluids, end connectors and track tension doesn’t take that long.  More meaningful maintenance takes place away from the front lines.

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-this isn't peacetime operations either; this also includes not just repairing damages but ammunition and fuel requirements, or recovery stricken or disabled vehicles - at the rate of ammunition consumption for an attacking force, which it is assumed ukraine will either attack towards the crimea in the south or towards the east, this would be challenging for anyone under similar conditions

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On 1/30/2023 at 11:21 PM, Captain_Colossus said:

furthermore what i've heard from some of the americans fighting in the foreign units there is that there a fair amount of corruption in the ukrainian military where some units will keep supplies meant for other units, it can be rather undisciplined and up to the discretion of local commanders to decide if they want to be generous- in other words it's not as organized, disciplined and regulated like the us military would be

 

You can export money and hardware with ease. You can't export an entire military culture with the snap of a finger. That's the fundamental reason why this equipment won't be as effective in Ukrainian hands as it is in the US or a solid NATO Army, more so than the logistics of maintaining and supplying these weapons.

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that certainly

5 hours ago, Nate Lawrence said:

 

You can export money and hardware with ease. You can't export an entire military culture with the snap of a finger. That's the fundamental reason why this equipment won't be as effective in Ukrainian hands as it is in the US or a solid NATO Army, more so than the logistics of maintaining and supplying these weapons.

 

while i agree with your point that is a fundamental problem, i do not agree that the implication is that the two are separate- they go together, because it is ukraine using these weapons, according to ukraine's abilities, according to the battlefield conditions and the war which ukraine is fighting- do you see that they are not separate issues but really are part of the same problem?

 

  the logistics problem and the culture problem are attached- that is the theatre these weapons are operating in, a large country which has also been noted that outside of russia, ukraine is one of the most corrupt states in europe; it just so happens that the battlefield is quite large, the russians initially made the mistake of sending columns with huge gaps that the ukrainians were able to slip through, behind and around and so on- but the russians have actually adapted and the war has changed. the vast size of ukraine either combines with or creates more opportunities for corruption which means more supplies needed to replace weapons being sold on the black market or snatched by opportunistic units, which creates more opportunities for corruption when more supplies run the gauntlet, so these issues interact with one another as a kind of self perpetuating syndrome

 

now the ukrainians will have to face its own similar problems as they attack east and supply lines growing longer and russian lines grow shorter. the media has been very particular about obscuring suppressing or denying that ukrainians have recently been losing huge amounts of equipment and men in recent months, so i think it really blinds audiences to what is really going on there- furthermore, apparently the ukrainians operate on a replenishment system which doesn't pull units out of the front line, but replaces individuals which are killed or wounded; in other words, the units may be officially 100 percent strength or fairly close to it, but the units consist of green, under-equipped replacements because they replace individuals losses but keep the units on the front line to get shellacked, as i understand it. but the perception is that the russians are completely inept and anything ukraine does is a military victory. when i see comments online on discussion boards, the average commentator refuses to believe or understand and they typically accuse anyone of pointing out these issues as being russian troll accounts. it really colors their perception that it isn't possible that ukraine is doing much worse than what is being reported.

 

 

Edited by Captain_Colossus
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